GiveWell Grant to Against Malaria Foundation for LLIN Campaigns (October 2021)

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givewell.org·givewell.org/research/grants/AMF-LLIN-campaigns-October-2021

This is a GiveWell grant report for malaria net distribution, unrelated to AI safety. It documents a $52.8M grant to the Against Malaria Foundation for LLIN campaigns in Nigeria, Uganda, and Togo, and is relevant only as an example of evidence-based philanthropic decision-making methodology.

Metadata

Importance: 5/100organizational reportanalysis

Summary

GiveWell granted $52.8 million to the Against Malaria Foundation in October 2021 to fund long-lasting insecticide-treated net campaigns in Nigeria (2022), Uganda, and Togo (2023). The grant was justified by cost-effectiveness analysis, identified funding gaps unlikely to be filled by other funders, and AMF's strong track record. The report details budget allocation, funding landscape, risks, and follow-up plans.

Key Points

•$52.8M grant supports LLIN campaigns in Nigeria ($6.9M), Uganda, and Togo scheduled for 2022-2023.
•Nigeria funding gap arose because Global Fund underestimated the number of LLINs needed for full population coverage.
•Grant rationale based on cost-effectiveness modeling, time-sensitivity of funding gaps, and AMF's proven track record.
•Risks include potential crowding out of future funding, model uncertainties, and pending post-distribution monitoring results.
•This represents GiveWell's evidence-based grantmaking process combining quantitative cost-effectiveness with qualitative risk assessment.

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Note: This page summarizes the rationale behind a GiveWell grant to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF). AMF reviewed this page prior to publication. 

 

 
 
 

 Summary

 In October 2021, GiveWell granted $52.8 million to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) to support long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) campaigns scheduled to occur in 2022 in Nigeria and in 2023 in Uganda and Togo. We made these grants because we believe that this work will be cost-effective, that these funding gaps are time-sensitive and unlikely to be fully filled by another funder, and that AMF has a strong track record of supporting LLIN campaigns in several countries, including Uganda and Togo.

 $8.8 million of this funding was given by donors to GiveWell's Top Charities Fund in the third quarter of 2021. The remainder of the funding was given unrestricted to GiveWell and subsequently restricted to grantmaking .

 
 Published: April 2022; Last Updated: November 2022 

 
 
 Table of Contents

 

 
 
 
 
 Summary 
 

 
 
 Planned activities and budget 
 

 
 
 The case for the grants 
 
 
 
 
 Cost-effectiveness 
 
 
 
 
 How we use cost-effectiveness estimates in our grantmaking 
 

 
 
 Nigeria 
 

 
 
 Uganda 
 

 
 
 Togo 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Funding landscape for LLINs 
 
 
 
 
 Nigeria 
 

 
 
 Uganda 
 

 
 
 Togo 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 AMF's track record in Uganda and Togo 
 

 
 
 Time-sensitivity 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Risks and reservations 
 
 
 
 
 Risk of future crowding out 
 

 
 
 Concerns about AMF as a partner 
 

 
 
 Uncertainties in our cost-effectiveness models 
 

 
 
 Uncertain use of future revenue 
 

 
 
 Not yet available post-distribution monitoring results 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Plans for followup 
 

 
 
 Internal forecasts 
 

 
 
 Our process 
 

 
 
 Sources 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 Table of Contents 
 1) Summary 
 2) Planned activities and budget 
 3) The case for the grants 
 3.1) Cost-effectiveness 
 3.1.1) How we use cost-effectiveness estimates in our grantmaking 
 3.1.2) Nigeria 
 3.1.3) Uganda 
 3.1.4) Togo 
 3.2) Funding landscape for LLINs 
 3.2.1) Nigeria 
 3.2.2) Uganda 
 3.2.3) Togo 
 3.3) AMF's track record in Uganda and Togo 
 3.4) Time-sensitivity 
 4) Risks and reservations 
 4.1) Risk of future crowding out 
 4.2) Concerns about AMF as a partner 
 4.3) Uncertainties in our cost-effectiveness models 
 4.4) Uncertain use of future revenue 
 4.5) Not yet available post-distribution monitoring results 
 5) Plans for followup 
 6) Internal forecasts 
 7) Our process 
 8) Sources 
 
 

 

 
 
 

 Planned activities and budget

 The $52.8 million will enable AMF to purchase LLINs for campaigns in:

 
 A set of states in Nigeria, at a cost of $6.9 million. 1 
 In Nigeria, most states are assigned to receive funding for malaria programs either from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria ("the Global Fund"), from the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), or through a loan from the World Bank and the Islamic Development Bank. 2 
 We exp

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Resource ID: e17b74f144a92826