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Is Forecasting a Promising EA Cause Area? - EA Forum
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A podcast episode from the EA Forum exploring forecasting and prediction markets as a cause area; relevant to AI safety researchers interested in epistemic tools for navigating uncertainty around transformative AI and catastrophic risks.
Metadata
Importance: 38/100podcast episodecommentary
Summary
This resource is a podcast/discussion exploring whether forecasting and prediction markets constitute a high-impact cause area within Effective Altruism. It examines how improving epistemic tools and decision-making under uncertainty could benefit humanity, including applications to existential risk reduction and AI safety.
Key Points
- •Evaluates forecasting as a potential EA cause area using standard cause prioritization frameworks (scale, neglectedness, tractability).
- •Explores how better forecasting tools could improve decision-making in high-stakes domains including AI safety and global catastrophic risks.
- •Discusses prediction markets and forecasting tournaments as mechanisms to aggregate information and reduce uncertainty.
- •Considers whether forecasting infrastructure is sufficiently neglected and whether EA involvement could have outsized impact.
- •Addresses limitations and challenges of forecasting as an intervention, including political and institutional adoption barriers.
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Podcast: Is Forecasting a Promising EA Cause Area? - Effective Altruism forum viewer Podcast: Is Forecasting a Promising EA Cause Area?
Ozzie Gooen 25 Mar 2024 20:36 UTC 29 points 3 comments 1 min read EA link Cause prioritization Forecasting Podcasts Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute Audio Algorithmic Forecasting Podcast Link
There was recently a lengthy thread on the EA Forum about the value of forecasting as a potential cause area, between Eli Lifland and myself (Ozzie Gooen). We thought it would be interesting to expand on this in a podcast episode.
Some Summary Points
Open Phil’s expanded forecasting grant-making program has sparked debate about the value and impact of this area.
The definition and boundaries of “forecasting” in EA are unclear, leading to differing opinions on its importance versus other priorities.
AI could significantly change forecasting, and integrating AI into forecasting pipelines is a key consideration.
Improving “epistemic infrastructure” is important, but the best approaches are uncertain, ranging from forecasting tournaments to broader efforts.
More work is needed on judgmental forecasting of AI risk and other key questions, but the tractability and impact are debated.
The prioritization of forecasting and the resources it deserves remain complex, unresolved questions requiring further research and experimentation.
Some Mentioned Organizations and Projects
Open Philanthropy —A foundation that aims to do as much good as possible with its giving, including grants for forecasting research and programs.
Metaculus —A community forecasting platform that hosts predictions on a wide range of topics, including AI and other EA-relevant areas.
CSET-Foretell —A project by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) that uses forecasting to inform policy decisions related to emerging technologies.
Manifold Markets —A prediction market platform that allows users to create and trade on forecasting questions.
The Good Judgment Project —A research project that studies the principles of good judgment and forecasting, and trains “Superforecasters” who demonstrate exceptional prediction skills.
The Effective Altruism Forum —An online community and discussion platform for topics related to effective altruism, including forecasting and AI safety.
The Good Food Institute —A nonprofit organization that promotes the development of alternative proteins, including plant-based and cultivated meat, to improve food sustainability and animal welfare.
Fatebook —An easy way to make and track predictions.
Future Search —A startup that’s working on AI-assisted forecasting.
We don’t have an edited transcript. We do have an autogenerated transcript and widget from Descript , but note that it has a lot of errors in it, and it includes a lot of filler words and phrases.
What links here? Ozzie Gooen 's comment on New Open Philanthropy Grantmaking Program: Forecasting by Coefficient Givi
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e733068bf13f012d | Stable ID: sid_IfCJ5FFpru