Ajeya Cotra

[Two-year update on my personal AI timelines](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#)

19 min read

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[Updates that push toward shorter timelines](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Updates_that_push_toward_shorter_timelines)

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[Picturing a more specific and somewhat lower bar for TAI](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Picturing_a_more_specific_and_somewhat_lower_bar_for_TAI)

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[Feeling like meta-learning may be unnecessary, making short horizon training seem more plausible](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Feeling_like_meta_learning_may_be_unnecessary__making_short_horizon_training_seem_more_plausible)

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[Explicitly breaking out “GPT-N” as an anchor](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Explicitly_breaking_out__GPT_N__as_an_anchor)

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[Considering endogeneities in spending and research progress](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Considering_endogeneities_in_spending_and_research_progress)

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[Seeing continued progress and no major counterexamples to DL scaling well](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Seeing_continued_progress_and_no_major_counterexamples_to_DL_scaling_well)

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[Seeing some cases of surprisingly fast progress](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Seeing_some_cases_of_surprisingly_fast_progress)

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[Making a one-time upward adjustment for “2020 FLOP / $”](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Making_a_one_time_upward_adjustment_for__2020_FLOP_____)

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[Updates that push toward longer timelines](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Updates_that_push_toward_longer_timelines)

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[Claims associated with short timelines that I still don’t buy](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Claims_associated_with_short_timelines_that_I_still_don_t_buy)

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[Sources of bias I’m not sure what to do with](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#Sources_of_bias_I_m_not_sure_what_to_do_with)

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[What does this mean?](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines#What_does_this_mean_)

[AI Timelines](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/ai-timelines)[AI](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/ai)
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# [Two-year update on my perso

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