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Full Marks Economist Superforecasts - Good Judgment Inc.
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Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
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Good Judgment Inc. was founded by Philip Tetlock, whose superforecasting research underpins many AI safety community forecasting efforts on platforms like Metaculus and Manifold Markets; this page documents their collaboration with The Economist.
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Summary
This page from Good Judgment Inc. showcases superforecasting results achieved in collaboration with The Economist, highlighting the accuracy of structured probabilistic forecasting methods. It demonstrates how trained 'superforecasters' outperform conventional expert predictions by applying systematic, calibrated judgment to geopolitical and global events.
Key Points
- •Superforecasters using Good Judgment methods achieved high accuracy scores on Economist-sponsored forecasting questions
- •Demonstrates the value of calibrated probabilistic thinking over intuitive or expert-only forecasting approaches
- •Superforecasting methodology involves aggregating diverse forecaster predictions with systematic updating
- •Results support the case that structured forecasting tournaments can produce reliable, actionable predictions
- •Relevant to AI safety as calibrated forecasting methods are used to assess AI risk timelines and probabilities
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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Full Marks from The Economist - Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc > Full Marks from The Economist
Full Marks from The Economist
Good Judgment’s team of Superforecasters received full marks from The Economist for their forecasts published last year in “The World Ahead 2023” issue. Now that eight of the nine questions have resolved, The Economist ’s editors were able to score the Superforecasters’ performance.
“The Good Judgment team had a good year in 2023, correctly forecasting the outcomes of the eight questions that were resolved,” the editorial team writes in the “The World Ahead 2024” print issue. “Global growth was 3%, China grew by 5%, ruling-party candidates won in Nigeria and Turkey, Vladimir Putin was not ousted, there was no election in Britain, no clash over Taiwan, and no nuclear device detonated by Russia.”
As to the ninth question in the 2023 publication, the Superforecasters continue to see a protracted conflict in Ukraine, likely going beyond 1 October 2024. That question remains open, and, as The Economist team notes, “Events in 2023 did not prove them wrong.”
“The World Ahead 2024” from The Economist is now available online and in print, and once again features the Superforecasters’ take on key questions for 2024. See their forecasts in the newspaper —or subscribe to FutureFirst™ to access all their forecasts that are updated daily.
About Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc is the successor to the Good Judgment Project, a research team that emerged as the undisputed victor in a massive forecasting competition (the Aggregate Contingent Estimation or ACE tournament) sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA) of the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Spanning four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts, that research project confirmed and refined methods that lead to the best possible forecast accuracy and is credited with the discovery of Superforecasters—people who are exceptionally skilled at assigning accurate probabilities to future outcomes. Good Judgment Inc is now making this winning approach to harnessing the wisdom of the crowd available for commercial use. Good Judgment’s Superforecasters are men and women around the world who go through a rigorous qualification process to demonstrate consistently high accuracy and quality commentary in their forecasting approaches.
About FutureFirst™
FutureFirst , Good Judgment’s exclusive monitoring tool, gives 24/7 access to timely insights on top-of-mind questions from a diverse global team of professional Superforecasters. It combines the advantages of an expert network with model-friendly quantitative forecasts of likely outcomes of key events. Daily forecast updates from our subscription service allow clients to spot emerging risks earlier and see
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