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Metaculus' First Animal-Focused Forecasting Tournament (Manifund Project)
webThis is a crowdfunding project on Manifund to run an animal welfare-focused forecasting tournament on Metaculus, tangentially related to AI safety through its use of forecasting methodologies for decision-making under uncertainty in a different domain.
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Importance: 8/100othertool
Summary
This Manifund project seeks to fund the first animal welfare-focused forecasting tournament on Metaculus, with a $15,000 goal to create a prize pool incentivizing forecasters. The tournament aims to generate decision-relevant predictions to help funders and animal advocacy organizations allocate resources more effectively. Questions will be crowdsourced from the animal advocacy community and vetted for decision-relevance.
Key Points
- •Goal is to run the first animal-focused forecasting tournament on Metaculus with a $15,000 funding target and prize pool for top forecasters.
- •Aims to help animal welfare funders prioritize interventions and raise awareness of forecasting tools among animal-aligned organizations.
- •Questions will be crowdsourced from animal advocacy communities and vetted with support from The Unjournal team.
- •Seeks to attract forecasters outside the animal advocacy community through monetary incentives to diversify perspectives.
- •Collaboration with Metaculus Forecasting Programs Coordinator Ryan Beck and media partners like Sentient Media for outreach.
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Metaculus' First Animal-Focused Forecasting Tournament | Manifund
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Metaculus' First Animal-Focused Forecasting Tournament
Animal welfare
Forecasting
🐻
Aditi Basu
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Grant
$3,400raised
$15,000funding goal
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Project summary
This project aims to run the first animal-focused forecasting tournament on the Metaculus platform. The goal is to generate forecasts on decision-relevant questions that will help both funders and animal-aligned organisations make more informed decisions about their funding allocation and strategy. Questions will be crowdsourced from the collective animal advocacy community and vetted appropriately to ensure the questions’ relevancy to decision-making in the community. The tournament contains a prize pool, which will be split amongst the best forecasters.
What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?
The primary goals of this project are threefold:
To enable funders in the animal welfare/rights space to prioritize animal-aligned interventions more effectively.
To raise awareness amongst animal-aligned organisations about forecasting, to enable them to make better-informed decisions about their strategies and future direction.
We also want forecasters outside the animal advocacy community to weigh in on the forecasts, diversifying the set of forecasters for the questions in the tournament.
#1 and #2 will primarily be achieved by advertising the tournament in various animal advocacy communities (e.g. Hive, Sentient Futures) and partnering with a media body like Sentient Media.
I’m hoping to achieve #3 by the presence of a prize pool in the tournament, so if forecasters weren’t intrinsically motivated to forecast these questions, at least the money to be won would be a good motivator.
How will this funding be used?
The funding will be used to create a prize pool for the Metaculus tournament. If funding exceeds $10,000, a small portion of the amount above the $10,000 will also be used to cover my efforts in filtering questions, operationalising them to a Metaculus-friendly format, advertising the tournament, and following up with decision makers in the animal advocacy community to gauge whether they have found the forecasts useful.
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