RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)

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RAND Corporation·rand.org/global-and-emerging-risks/forecasting-initiative...

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4/5

High(4)

High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.

Rating inherited from publication venue: RAND Corporation

The RAND Forecasting Initiative uses crowdsourced forecasting to help policymakers and intelligence communities assess geopolitical risks and emerging threats, a methodology relevant to AI safety governance and anticipating AI-related risks.

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Summary

The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) applies crowdsourced forecasting to policy-relevant questions for government decisionmakers, warfighters, and intelligence analysts. It uses strategic decomposition to break complex geopolitical questions into actionable probabilistic forecasts. RFI aims to become the leading crowdsourced forecasting enterprise for policy-relevant questions.

Key Points

•RFI delivers crowdsourced probabilistic forecasts on geopolitical and security questions to support government decisionmakers.
•Uses 'strategic decomposition' to break large strategic questions into smaller, actionable subquestions for forecasters.
•Outputs include forecast data, trends, rationales, accuracy scores, and measures of bias and calibration.
•Open to forecasters with interest in geopolitics, science and technology, or forecasting methodology.
•Builds on RAND's 75-year legacy of quantitative and qualitative policy analysis.

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Gain Decision Advantage with RFI Crowdsourced Forecasts

 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
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Warfighters, the intelligence community, and policy analysts across government confront complex, emerging questions that test their best analytical techniques. The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) delivers the collective, diverse insights of crowdsourced forecasting to expand decisionmakers' analytical toolkits.

Building on RAND's 75-year legacy of rigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis, RFI taps the power of crowdsourced forecasting to inform policy decisions and highlight areas of consensus and disagreement. Those insights empower decisionmakers to navigate complex landscapes and peer over the horizon with a broader perspective.

RFI aims to become the world's leading crowdsourced forecasting enterprise on policy-relevant questions. Decisionmakers can contact RFI now to learn more about how forecasting helps identify emerging threats and opportunities, highlights nascent trends, and supports rationales for policymaking. 

 

 

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We encourage anyone with an interest in forecasting, science and technology, or geopolitics to apply to join the RFI community.

 
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How Can RFI Help?

 
RFI can pose policy-relevant questions to forecasters and synthesize crowdsourced probabilities to such questions as:

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before December 31, 2025?

Will Ukraine join NATO before December 31, 2028?

 

RFI Forecasting In Depth

 
RFI gets requests from decisionmakers on what they need to understand about the future. Those queries are refined into questions that best represent what decisionmakers need to know through the process of strategic decomposition (i.e., breaking down a big strategic question into smaller subquestions to frame specific queries that will deliver th

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