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Kalshi - Prediction Market Platform (Wikipedia)
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Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Wikipedia
Relevant background for AI safety researchers interested in prediction markets as epistemic tools for forecasting AI risks or policy outcomes; Kalshi is a primary real-money regulated venue but this Wikipedia article is a general reference rather than AI-safety-specific content.
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Importance: 22/100wiki pagereference
Summary
Wikipedia article on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange in the United States that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Kalshi became the first federally regulated prediction market in the US after receiving CFTC approval in 2020, enabling trading on events ranging from economics to politics.
Key Points
- •Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, approved in 2020
- •Users can trade binary contracts on real-world event outcomes, including economic indicators, weather, and politics
- •Prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom to generate probability estimates, which can inform forecasting and decision-making
- •Kalshi has faced regulatory battles, including over political event contracts, highlighting tensions between prediction markets and regulators
- •As a legitimate regulated venue, Kalshi represents growing institutional acceptance of prediction markets as information tools
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (Prediction Market) | Organization | 25.0 |
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Kalshi - Wikipedia
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
American prediction betting site
Kalshi Inc. Company type Private Industry Sports betting , Prediction Betting Founded 2018 ; 8 years ago  ( 2018 ) Founders Tarek Mansour
Luana Lopes Lara
Headquarters 594 Broadway
New York , NY 10012
U.S. [ 1 ] Website kalshi .com
Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan , New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting , which constitutes more than 90% of the activity on the site [ 2 ] [ 3 ] and 89% of the site's revenue in 2025. [ 4 ] Activity on the site is described as "heavily tied to the sports calendar" by analysts. [ 5 ]
To a smaller extent, the platform is also used to trade on future events other than sports, including economic indicators , cultural events, technological developments and political outcomes.
The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports and election markets, the ethics of allowing wagers on sensitive geopolitical issues, and insider trading. [ 6 ] [ 7 ] [ 8 ] Concerns over election integrity and decreasing public trust in the democratic process caused by election betting were raised by consumer advocacy groups and politicians.
Scholars have challenged that Kalshi efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes. [ 9 ]
History
[ edit ]
In 2018, Kalshi was established by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara , [ 10 ] two financial analysts. Initially, the project was briefly known as "Kownig". [ 11 ]
In November 2020, Kalshi attained a license from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission , registering the platform as a designated contract market. [ 12 ] [ 13 ] [ 14 ] The site was publicly launched in July 2021. [ 15 ]
Beginning in 2022, Kalshi's attempts to offer political and election-related betting faced sustained legal and regulatory challenges from the CFTC. [ 16 ] [ 17 ] [ 18 ] The CFTC delayed decisions on these contracts, questioning whether they constituted valid risk-hedging tools and if they served the public interest. Internal disagreement emerged, with Commissioner Caroline Pham dissenting and arguing the contracts were not prohibited and did not require a public-interest test. [ 19 ]
In 2023, another months-long legal dispute began between Kalshi and the CFTC. Kalshi repeated that its contracts serve the public interest. In contrast, the CFTC contends that these contracts constitute illegal gambling and that it lacks the resources to oversee them effectively. Chairman Rostin Behnam has cautioned that all
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