Kalshi Science Category

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Useful as a real-time crowd-sourced probability source for AI capability and AGI timeline questions; financial incentives encourage calibration, but market liquidity and question design quality vary.

Metadata

Importance: 35/100homepagereference

Summary

Kalshi's Tech & Science prediction market category aggregates real-money crowd forecasts on AI capabilities, space exploration, nuclear energy, and emerging technologies. Markets include questions on AGI timelines, AI model rankings, SpaceX launches, nuclear reactor licensing, and psychedelic FDA approvals, with millions of dollars in trading volume reflecting collective probabilistic assessments.

Key Points

•Markets on OpenAI AGI timeline show ~45% probability before 2030 and ~31% before 2028, with $571K trading volume reflecting significant crowd interest.
•AI capability benchmarks tracked via scored thresholds (e.g., 1550+ score by July), providing quantified forecasts on near-term capability growth.
•Best AI coding model market assigns Anthropic 44% and OpenAI 32% probability for end-of-2026 leadership, useful for tracking capability competition.
•Nuclear energy markets cover both regulatory milestones (new reactor licenses) and startup criticality events, reflecting forecasts on advanced nuclear deployment.
•Alien confirmation and psychedelic FDA approval markets illustrate the breadth of science forecasting, though these are lower-stakes relative to AI/AGI questions.

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
Kalshi (Prediction Market)	Organization	25.0

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TrendingPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoClimateEconomicsMentionsCompaniesFinancials
Tech & Science

All markets

AI

Space

Energy

Tech & Science

Trending

Frequency

Best AI this month?

Claude1.34x73%

Gemini3.80x25%

$1,081,110 vol7 markets

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Yes5.56x16%

No1.18x84%

$3,289,422 vol1 market

How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026?

Above 121.52x64%

Above 1310.4x8%

$671,242 vol7 markets

What will be the top AI model this month?

claude-opus-4-6-thinking1.25x78%

claude-opus-4-615.6x6%

$2,071,794 vol13 markets

SpaceX Starship 12th launch?

Before April2.01x47%

Before May1.13x88%

$336,387 vol4 markets

NASA lands on the moon?

Before 20286.29x15%

Before 202715.6x6%

$172,207 vol2 markets

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 20302.14x44%

Before 20283.40x28%

$561,030 vol3 markets

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

Yes2.19x43%

No1.70x57%

$78,378 vol1 market

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

Yes3.40x27%

No1.34x73%

$213,518 vol1 market

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

xAI1.76x54%

OpenAI1.65x58%

$816,447 vol12 markets

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic2.34x41%

OpenAI2.66x36%

$189,920 vol9 markets

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year?

Yes1.05x95%

No15.6x5%

$36,286 vol1 market

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance

... (truncated, 4 KB total)

Resource ID: 6cd183ce474a8cca | Stable ID: sid_P9dydxqLc7