Ozzie Gooen - by Ben Goldhaber - Mutual Understanding - Substack

Mutual Understanding Ozzie Gooen 1× 0:00 Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -1:29:23 -1:29:23 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. Ozzie Gooen

 Creating an estimation utopia and establishing justified trust in institutions. Ben Goldhaber May 24, 2023 Share 

 Coordination among 8 billion people is very tough. We're very far away from doing that with the intelligence that we have now, it's incredibly costly to send information to different people and for different people to learn about each other in order to trust each other…  we should kind of expect that people will have a lot of trouble coordinating on a big scale. But if we could then we’d grow a lot!

 …

 In terms of least ‘failing with dignity’, do we think that the public did a good job in trying to investigate this and was misled? Or do we think that the public just like did a terrible job in like doing anything coordinated and just got hoodwinked super easily? I think we fall a lot more into the latter camp

 Ozzie Gooen is the president of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). In this episode we discuss Utilitarianism, improving trust in organizations, communities, and governments, and his work in building better software for thinking, forecasting, and estimation.

 Links from the Show 

 The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute 

 The QURI Medley 

 A video explaining QURI’s new Relative Value Estimation tool. 

 Reports on the failure to identify Bernie Madoff’s fraud 

 How to Measure Anything 

 The OpenAI Board 

 Timestamps 

 [00:01:00] Worldview

 [00:08:00] Starter Pack Philosophies

 [00:12:00] How tools for better Epistemics fits into Utilitarianism

 [00:20:00] Mistake theory vs Conflict Theory

 [00:24:00] Improving EA institutions

 [00:30:00] Justified Trust in Governments

 [00:38:00] Contracts and monitoring for evaluating orgs

 [00:46:30] Estimation utopias

 [00:52:00] Centralization vs Decentralization

 [00:58:00] The value of a good investigation in the case of FTX

 [01:05:00] The importance of the OpenAI Board

 [01:09:00] Estimating Relative Values

 [01:18:15] Shared intellectual infrastructure

 [01:26:00] Epistemically mature civilizations

 

 Transcript 

 The transcript is machine generated and likely contains errors. 

 Ben: We're excited to have Ozzie Gooen with us today. 

 Ozzie: Excited to be here. 

 Divia: Thanks so much for coming. 

 Ben: Let me briefly introduce you for our listeners who are unfamiliar. Ozzie is the president of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, a research organization dedicated to advancing forecasting and epistemics to improve the future of humanity. He's previously worked at the Future of Humanity Institute, appropriately enough, and might be most well known for creating Guesstimate, a wonderful spreadsheet-like tool for handling distributions and uncertainty. It is still one of my favorite apps in the tool for thought space. I still use it a lot. So Ozzie, welcome 

... (truncated, 98 KB total)