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Our Team - Good Judgment Inc.
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Good Judgment Inc. is the commercial arm of the Good Judgment Project, relevant to AI safety discussions around forecasting, uncertainty quantification, and using structured prediction methods for policy and risk assessment.
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Summary
Good Judgment Inc. is a forecasting and training company co-founded by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, the researchers behind the Good Judgment Project. The company employs certified Superforecasters with diverse professional backgrounds to provide calibrated probability forecasts on geopolitical, economic, public health, and technology outcomes for public and private organizations.
Key Points
- •Co-founded by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, leading researchers in forecasting accuracy and the Superforecasting methodology.
- •Employs Certified Superforecasters spanning six continents with expertise in finance, political science, intelligence analysis, science, and engineering.
- •Offers FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services to help organizations make better decisions.
- •Superforecasters focus on well-calibrated, accurate probability forecasts for complex geopolitical, economic, legal, and technology outcomes.
- •Team includes dedicated data scientists and managing directors supporting commercial applications of forecasting research.
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| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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Meet Good Judgment's Superforecasting Team
About > Our Team
Diverse Experience. One Focus.
Co-founded by Good Judgment Project leads Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers , Good Judgment Inc provides forecasting and training services for public and private organizations.
Meet the team that makes it happen.
Good Judgment’s Management Team
Warren Hatch
CEO
Warren Hatch
CEO
Dr. Hatch joined Good Judgment as a volunteer forecaster in the research project sponsored by the US government, became a Superforecaster, and is now CEO of the commercial successor, Good Judgment Inc. His prior career was on Wall Street where he started at Morgan Stanley before co-founding a boutique investment firm. Hatch earned his PhD from Oxford University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst Charterholder.
David Wayrynen
Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer
David Wayrynen
Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer
Mr. Wayrynen is a co-founder of Good Judgment Inc and was the lead developer for the Good Judgment Project’s prediction poll platform. As the founder of MMC Software, he created collaborative work environments from 1985.
Anna Zeng
Chief Legal Officer
Anna Zeng
Chief Legal Officer
Ms. Zeng is Good Judgment’s Contracts Officer, and handles legal, compliance, and related administrative matters for the company. She is a member of the New York State Bar Association.
Terry L. Murray
Co-Founder and Senior Advisor
Terry L. Murray
Co-Founder and Senior Advisor
Ms. Murray is a co-founder and CEO Emeritus of Good Judgment Inc. She advises Good Judgment’s management team and serves as Chair of its Board of Directors.
Ms. Murray was Project Manager for the Good Judgment Project at UC–Berkeley. Prior to that, she founded a consulting firm specializing in telecommunications and energy policy and was a division director at the California Public Utilities Commission.
Scientists, Managing Directors, and Directors
Eva Chen
Chief Scientist
Eva Chen
Chief Scientist
Winner of the 2016 Exeter Prize for Research in Experimental Economics, Decision Theory and Behavioral Economics, Dr. Chen leads Good Judgment’s decision-science research. She also coordinates Good Judgment’s training and forecaster feedback content development. As a postdoc with the Good Judgment Project, she led development of the online training platform that produced improvements in forecasting accuracy.
Chris Karvetski
Senior Data and Decision Scientist
Chris Karvetski
Senior Data and Decision Scientist
Dr. Karvetski leads Good Judgment’s data-science research and special projects. Through his work as a postdoctoral analyst in the IARPA ACE pro
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