Announcing Manifest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)
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Saul Munn·Austin Chen
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Event announcement for a forecasting-focused conference with community overlap with AI safety; useful primarily for those interested in prediction markets as epistemic tools for reasoning about AI and other global risks.
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External EventsForecasting & PredictionPrediction MarketsProject AnnouncementThe SF Bay Area
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Summary
Announcement for Manifest 2023, a forecasting and prediction market conference held in Berkeley from September 22-24, 2023. The event brings together forecasters, rationalists, and AI safety-adjacent thinkers to discuss forecasting methods, prediction markets, and their applications to important global questions including AI risk.
Key Points
- •Manifest 2023 is a conference focused on forecasting, prediction markets, and rationalist community gathering in Berkeley.
- •The event features talks, workshops, and networking opportunities for those interested in calibrated reasoning and forecasting.
- •Forecasting and prediction markets are relevant to AI safety as tools for reasoning about future AI trajectories and risks.
- •The conference connects the rationalist/EA community with forecasting practitioners and researchers.
- •Manifest serves as a gathering point for communities with significant overlap with AI safety research circles.
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# Announcing Manifest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)
By Saul Munn, Austin Chen
Published: 2023-08-14
Forecasting Festival hosted by Manifold
=======================================
TL;DR: [Manifold](https://www.notion.so/Manifest-2023-ff3d97547d104c6b9acdf7966ef79169?pvs=21) is hosting a conference! 🥳 Chat with the Manifold team, special guests like Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more at our inaugural in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community.
More info & buy tickets: [manifestconference.net](http://manifestconference.net/)
WHEN: Sept 22-24
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
WHO: Everyone in the forecasting, EA, and LW communities. If you're reading this, you're invited!
Join the Discord [here](https://discord.gg/jHghsvbUR8) :)
Why should I come?
==================
Forecasting and prediction markets are effective ways of improving our judgement and decision-making — most people in the Effective Altruism and LessWrong communities will feel right at home at Manifest.
Here are extra reasons to come:
* you think forecasting & prediction markets are impactful/fun/cool/rational/intriguing/etc
* you want to vibe with other forecasting nerds
* you want to engage & network with the forecasting community (find jobs/recruit hires/see what’s out there)
* you want to meet & chat with the Manifold team and our [special guests](http://manifestconference.net/speakers) (including Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and [more](http://manifestconference.net/speakers)!)
* you want enjoy the gorgeous Rose Garden Inn
* …or if you like memes?
A day at Manifest
=================
Everything’s optional. There will always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently, but this is an example of what your day at Manifest might look like:
10-11 — Opening session
11-12 — Fireside chat: Robin Hanson
12-1 — Lunch & mingling
1-2 — Estimathon: fermi estimation with prizes and steep competition!
2-3 — Speed friending: a few chats with other friendly, ambitious forecasting nerds :)
3-4 — Break: relax, vibe, unwind, chill, destress, etc
4-5 — Panel: Forecasting Founders (hear from Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Insight Predictions, and more!)
5-6 — Games & markets: chess, poker, and prediction markets!
6-7 — Dinner & mingling
7-8 — Workshop: How to Write *Good* Forecasting Questions
8-12 — [Murder She Bet](http://murdershebet.com/): a murder mystery + a low-tech prediction market = fun!
Who else is coming?
===================
The rest of the forecasting & prediction market community. Current speakers & special guests include:
* The whole Manifold team, including co-founders Austin Chen and Stephen & James Grugett
* [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/) (economist & professor)
* [Shayne Coplan](http://p
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