Back
Good Judgment 2024 In Review
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc. is the commercial offshoot of Philip Tetlock's superforecasting research; their annual reviews are useful for understanding how calibrated forecasting applies to AI and policy questions relevant to the safety community.
Metadata
Importance: 35/100blog postnews
Summary
Good Judgment's annual review of their forecasting activities and performance in 2024, highlighting key predictions, accuracy metrics, and notable geopolitical and technological forecasting outcomes from their superforecaster network. The review likely covers AI-related forecasts alongside other major global events.
Key Points
- •Annual retrospective on forecasting accuracy and methodology from Good Judgment, the organization founded from the superforecaster research
- •Covers performance of superforecasters on major 2024 events including AI, geopolitics, and economics
- •Demonstrates the value of structured probabilistic forecasting for anticipating technological and policy developments
- •Relevant to AI governance and safety communities as a resource for calibrated predictions about AI progress and regulation
- •Good Judgment's track record provides credibility benchmarks for forecasting AI-related risks and timelines
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 9, 20265 KB
Good Judgment’s 2024 in Review - Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc > Good Judgment’s 2024 in Review
Good Judgment’s 2024 in Review
Superforecasters always keep score. As we turn the page to 2025 at Good Judgment Inc, we look back at 2024 for highlights, statistics, and key developments.
What a year it was! From monetary policy shifts to volatile election outcomes, our Superforecasters tackled some of the most complex forecasting questions to date. Good Judgment’s clients and FutureFirst™ subscribers posed 151 questions to the Superforecasters on our proprietary platform, with a total of 1,132 forecasting questions live in 2024 across our platforms, including on GJ Open , our public forecasting site.
Forecasting Highlights
Good Judgment’s Superforecasters continued to outperform financial markets in 2024. This caught the eye of, among others, Financial Times reporters.
“A group of lay people with a talent for forecasting have consistently outperformed financial markets in predicting the Fed’s next move,” wrote data journalist Joel Suss for FT’s Monetary Policy Radar in July 2024. For the year as a whole, the Superforecasters outperformed the futures markets by 22%.
Our partnership with ForgeFront and the UK Government’s Futures Procurement Network continued to grow in 2024. In November, Good Judgment’s CEO Dr. Warren Hatch spoke remotely at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Futures Trend Briefing, discussing the role of Superforecasting in supporting the UK’s Biological Security Strategy.
We also saw an increased interest in subscriptions to specialized forecast channels on FutureFirst , including the “Superforecasting the Middle East” and “Superforecasting US Politics” channels. Individual FutureFirst channels provide access to a range of forecasting questions grouped by theme or topical focus and, like the all-inclusive subscription option, come with daily forecast updates and API access.
Media and Research
Throughout the past year, Good Judgment continued partnering with leading media organizations. Notably, The Economist once again featured our Superforecasters’ outlook in “The World Ahead 2025.” The focus for this year was on US tariffs, elections in Germany, Canada, and Australia, China’s inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Our Superforecasters were also referenced in The New York Times , Wired , and Vox , among other media outlets. (See our Press page for the full list.)
Our research partners at the Forecasting Research Institute continued exploring the applications of Superforecasting in approaching key questions, from AI forecasting capabilities to nuclear risk. The institute’s ForecastBench, released on 1 October 2024, revealed that the top-performing large language models (LLMs) lagged behind Superforecasters by 19%. (See ou
... (truncated, 5 KB total)Resource ID:
e2391af582679cb4 | Stable ID: sid_erkAIkE61I