AGI/Singularity Timing: 9,800 Predictions Analyzed

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 Cem Dilmegani with  Sıla Ermut updated on  Feb 24, 2026 See our ethical norms Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is when an AI system matches human cognitive abilities across all tasks. Based on available predictions, quick answers on AGI:

 Will AGI/singularity happen? AGI is inevitable according to most AI experts.

 When will the singularity/AGI happen? Rece nt surveys of AI researchers  predict AGI in 2040s. According to community forecasts , AGI is expected around 2030s. Entrepreneurs are predicting it to happen in a few years. 

 We analyzed 9,800 AI scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’ and the community’s predictions in the AGI timeline:

 Artificial General Intelligence timeline

 Loading Chart The timeline above outlines the anticipated year of the singularity, based on insights gathered from 8 surveys and responses from 9,800 AI researchers, scientists, and participants in prediction markets:

 As you can see above, survey respondents are increasingly expecting the singularity to occur earlier than previously expected.

 Here is how we created this graph:

 
 To plot the expected year of AGI development on the graph, we used the weighted average of predictions for each year within each category. For example, if there were multiple Prediction Market forecasts in 2022, we calculated their weighted average and plotted that value.

 For individual predictions, we included forecasts from 15 AI experts.

 For scientific predictions, we collected survey results from 8 peer-reviewed papers that provide timelines for AGI.

 For prediction markets & community insight predictions, we used:
 
 Over 1,100 predictions from Manifold, Kalshi, and Polymarket, which are online prediction markets where participants trade on the likelihood and timing of future events for profit or reputation.

 Aggregated results from 8 Samotsvety Forecasting experts. Samotsvety Forecasting employs quantitative methods to generate probabilistic predictions about real-world events.

 3,290 predictions submitted in 2020 and 2022 on the publicly accessible Metaculus platform.

 

 Other key questions on AGI

 What is our current status on AGI? 

 Although narrow AI surpasses humans in specific tasks, a generally intelligent machine doesn’t exist. Some researchers believe that large language models demonstrate emerging generalist capabilities. 1 According to our AGI benchmark , machines are far from generating economic value autonomously.

 How can we reach AGI? 

 Either by putting more compute and data behind current architectures like transformers, or by inventing new approaches. There is no scientific consensus yet on the method for achieving AGI or for validating it. 

 Below you can see the studies and predictions that make up this timeline, or skip to  understanding the s

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