AI Impacts
webCredibility Rating
Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: AI Impacts
AI Impacts is a key empirical research hub for AI safety; its expert surveys and wiki pages are frequently cited in discussions about AI timelines, risk probability, and strategic forecasting within the broader AI safety community.
Metadata
Summary
AI Impacts is a research organization that investigates empirical questions relevant to AI forecasting and safety, including AI timelines, discontinuous progress risks, and existential risk arguments. It maintains a wiki and blog featuring expert surveys, historical analyses, and structured arguments about transformative AI development. Notable outputs include periodic expert surveys on AI progress timelines.
Key Points
- •Hosts the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, a large-scale survey of 2778 ML researchers on timelines and risk
- •Maintains a wiki covering AI existential risk arguments, timeline predictions, and responses to AI development
- •Analyzes likelihood of discontinuous progress around AGI development using historical technology analogies
- •Investigates whether transformative AI technologies are inevitable, including cases of incentivized technologies not pursued
- •Affiliated with FLI, MIRI, and FHI, representing a core node in the AI safety research ecosystem
Cited by 8 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AGI Timeline | Concept | 59.0 |
| AI Risk Portfolio Analysis | Analysis | 64.0 |
| AI Compounding Risks Analysis Model | Analysis | 60.0 |
| Deceptive Alignment Decomposition Model | Analysis | 62.0 |
| International AI Coordination Game Model | Analysis | 59.0 |
| AI Safety Research Value Model | Analysis | 60.0 |
| AI Impacts | Organization | 53.0 |
| Epoch AI | Organization | 51.0 |
Cached Content Preview
AI Impacts Wiki The wiki replaces old AI Impacts pages. Old pages are still up, but for up to date content see wiki versions. Featured wiki pages 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI Fiction relevant to AI futurism Is AI an existential risk to humanity? Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI Incentivized technologies not pursued Blog FAQ: Expert Survey on Progress in AI methodology 2025-10-31 by Katja Grace Context Reanalyzing the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI 2024-12-15 by Ben Weinstein-Raun With new charts, and a newly open-source codebase Winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy 2024-10-28 by Owen Cotton-Barratt We’re delighted to announce the winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy. Search the wiki, the blog and site: MH Magazine Wordpress Theme by MH Themes.
3b9fda03b8be71dc | Stable ID: sid_7AtrAEst9J