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Samotsvety Forecasting
websamotsvety.org·samotsvety.org/
Samotsvety provides expert probabilistic forecasts on AI and catastrophic risk questions; their published estimates are frequently cited in EA and AI safety communities as calibrated reference points.
Metadata
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Summary
Samotsvety is a team of elite superforecasters known for winning major forecasting competitions by significant margins. They provide forecasting consulting and publish predictions on high-stakes questions, including topics relevant to AI risk and global catastrophic risks. Their work represents a rigorous probabilistic approach to assessing uncertain futures.
Key Points
- •Won a major forecasting tournament with substantially better accuracy than competing teams, establishing credibility in quantitative prediction.
- •Offers consulting services for organizations seeking calibrated probability estimates on impactful or uncertain questions.
- •Has published forecasts relevant to AI safety and existential risk, including estimates on AI timelines and catastrophic risk scenarios.
- •Applies superforecasting methodology emphasizing calibration, updating on evidence, and decomposing complex problems.
- •Represents a community resource for grounding AI safety discussions in empirically-informed probabilistic reasoning.
Review
Samotsvety represents a cutting-edge approach to probabilistic prediction and forecasting, distinguishing themselves through remarkable predictive accuracy. Their victory in the CSET-Foretell competition by approximately double the performance of their nearest competitors suggests a sophisticated methodology for analyzing uncertain future events and complex scenarios.
In the context of AI safety, such high-caliber forecasting capabilities are critically important for understanding potential risks, trajectories, and critical intervention points. By demonstrating superior predictive skills, Samotsvety provides a valuable resource for decision-makers and researchers seeking nuanced, data-driven insights into emerging technological and existential challenges. Their work highlights the potential of expert forecasting as a strategic tool for navigating uncertainty and informing proactive risk management strategies.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AGI Timeline | Concept | 59.0 |
1 FactBase fact citing this source
| Entity | Property | Value | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samotsvety | Website | https://samotsvety.org | — |
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We are a group of forecasters with a great track record working on applying forecasting to impactful questions. We hope to improve the forecasting ecosystem. Wait, no, we are a forecasting team, not a Soviet Union band. Scott Alexander describes us as : Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”. We are open to forecasting consulting requests, and can be reached out at info@samotsvety.org . Readers might also want to view our track record , browse our projects , read our media mentions or subscribe to our updates .
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73e5f5bbfbda4925 | Stable ID: MDQ2YTk2NW