Back
Polymarket - Wikipedia
referenceCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Wikipedia
Relevant to AI safety discussions around forecasting and prediction markets as epistemic tools; Polymarket is sometimes cited in contexts involving AI-driven forecasting, but primarily operates as a general-purpose crypto prediction market with notable governance and integrity concerns.
Metadata
Importance: 25/100wiki pagereference
Summary
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform launched in 2020 that allows users to trade on the probability of future events across politics, economics, sports, and more using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. The platform has faced regulatory scrutiny, bans in multiple jurisdictions, and ethical concerns around insider trading and outcome manipulation.
Key Points
- •Launched in 2020, Polymarket enables users to bet on future outcomes using USDC cryptocurrency via the Polygon blockchain network.
- •Raised ethical concerns as it allows betting on military strikes and wars, with the WSJ describing it as a 'legal and ethical grey area'.
- •Multiple instances of suspicious trading, outcome manipulation attempts, and journalist pressure campaigns have been documented on the platform.
- •Initially banned in the US; the Trump administration eased regulatory restrictions, while France and other jurisdictions have maintained bans.
- •Donald Trump Jr.'s firm 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket, and he was added as an advisor, raising political conflict-of-interest questions.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Organization | 33.0 |
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 9, 202631 KB
Polymarket - Wikipedia
Jump to content
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
American cryptocurrency-based prediction market
Polymarket Industry Prediction market Founded 2020 ; 6 years ago  ( 2020 ) Founder Shayne Coplan Headquarters 1280 Lexington Avenue
New York , NY 10028
U.S. [ 1 ] Key people Shayne Coplan ( CEO ) Website polymarket .com
Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency -based prediction market , headquartered in Manhattan , New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators , weather patterns, awards, political and legislative outcomes, and military conflicts. Participants can deposit USDC cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific future outcomes.
The controversial nature of the betting markets offered by the company (which allow gambling on military strikes and ongoing wars), as well as the ability of individuals with insider information to bet on outcomes, have been described by the Wall Street Journal as a "legal and ethical grey area." [ 2 ] Numerous instances of suspicious trading have been observed on Polymarket, [ 3 ] as well as attempts by gamblers to manipulate outcomes [ 4 ] and pressure journalists to change reporting. [ 5 ]
Polymarket has been banned by governments in multiple jurisdictions, such as France. [ 6 ] The platform was initially blocked in the United States amid regulatory scrutiny. The second Donald Trump administration eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket. [ 6 ] [ 7 ] At the same time, Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor, after his firm 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket. [ 6 ] [ 7 ]
The company advertises that its markets "reflect real-time sentiment", [ 8 ] however scholars have challenged that the platform efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes. [ 9 ] [ 10 ] A review by the New York Times of Polymarket's social media posts found that the platform has published hundreds of false and misleading posts. [ 11 ]
History
[ edit ]
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan , [ 12 ] Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events. [ 13 ] In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and received a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility . [ 14 ] [ 15 ] According to the CFTC, Polymarket offered "substantial cooperation" throughout the investigation, which resulted in the company receiving a lo
... (truncated, 31 KB total)Resource ID:
78b61aeac39413b7 | Stable ID: sid_9EMKYp4bPU