Epoch AI Research

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Credibility Rating

4/5

High(4)

High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.

Rating inherited from publication venue: Epoch AI

Epoch AI is a widely cited empirical research organization whose compute and scaling trend analyses are frequently referenced in AI safety and governance literature to ground capability forecasts.

Metadata

Importance: 62/100homepage

Summary

Epoch AI is a research organization focused on investigating and forecasting trends in AI development, particularly around compute, training data, and algorithmic progress. Their work aims to provide empirical grounding for understanding the trajectory of AI capabilities and informing AI governance and safety decisions.

Key Points

•Tracks historical and projected trends in AI training compute, model size, and dataset growth
•Produces quantitative forecasts and analyses relevant to understanding AI capabilities trajectories
•Research informs AI safety and governance discussions by grounding them in empirical data
•Covers topics including compute scaling, algorithmic efficiency improvements, and AI progress benchmarks
•Serves as a key reference for researchers and policymakers assessing near- and long-term AI development

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
Epoch AI	Organization	51.0

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About Us | Epoch AI 

 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 Mission

 Epoch AI was founded to help people understand what is happening in AI from a neutral perspective and grounded in the best possible evidence.

 Our goal is to improve society’s understanding of the drivers, progress, and impact of artificial intelligence. We focus on building a shared scientific foundation for thinking about AI, neutral to any specific agenda, so decisions about this technology are informed by the best available data.

 
 Research

 We examine the driving forces behind AI, track the progress of AI capabilities, and measure and forecast its impact . We ground all our research in data and distill it into accessible tools and explainers.

 Drivers

 We investigate the drivers and bottlenecks of AI progress and scaling. We were among the first to systematically monitor trends in AI training compute, and to identify crucial shifts such as the role of inference compute scaling. Our research includes authoritative analyses of whether AI scaling can continue through 2030 and the feasibility of decentralized training , providing concrete insights into what constrains AI progress.

 We develop and host leading databases tracking the inputs to AI development, including ML hardware , AI model training compute estimates , investment , GPU clusters , and frontier data centers . This data provides the foundation for understanding AI’s trajectory and resource requirements.

 Progress

 We measure and track the capabilities of AI systems over time . We regularly run independent evaluations of new models across domains, and go beyond surface metrics to understand concrete implications for model capabilities. We also review prominent benchmarks, and create new ones; for example, FrontierMath , the state-of-the-art for testing frontier math capabilities.

 Impacts

 We gather evidence and develop scientifically grounded models to forecast the impact of AI on the economy and the world at large.

 We have conducted highly cited research on the economics of AI, from analyzing the consequences of automating remote work , to quantitatively modeling the impact of AI development on the economy . We also conduct polls and interviews on how AI is used and perceived by academics, AI researchers, and the general population.

 
 History

 Epoch AI was started in 2021 as a group of volunteers collecting and analyzing data on AI, curating information from hundreds of machine learning models. They believed the industry needed more rigor and empiricism in place of the hype and vibes. Following the success of their 2022 paper analyzing training compute trends , the group founded Epoch AI to scale up their efforts in researching trends in artificial intelligence.

 Over the last few years, Epoch AI has grown into a multidisciplinary, global, and curiosity-driven team committed to supporting people and organizations worldwide in understanding and navigating the rapid evolution of AI technology.

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