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Metaculus Question: When Will the First General AI System Be Devised, Tested, and Publicly Announced?
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3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus
A community forecasting question useful for understanding how predictions about AGI timelines have evolved; often referenced when discussing how seriously to weight near-term AI risk scenarios in safety planning.
Metadata
Importance: 45/100otherreference
Summary
A Metaculus forecasting question asking community members to predict when the first generally capable AI system will be created and publicly announced. The question aggregates probabilistic forecasts from many forecasters to produce a community estimate on AGI arrival timing.
Key Points
- •Crowdsourced prediction market question tracking community estimates for AGI development timeline
- •Aggregates probabilistic forecasts from many participants to produce consensus timeline estimates
- •Relevant to AI safety planning as timelines affect urgency and resource allocation for safety research
- •Metaculus questions on AGI are frequently cited in discussions about AI development pace and risk
- •Forecast distributions have shifted over time, reflecting evolving community views on AI progress
Cited by 4 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AGI Development | -- | 52.0 |
| AGI Timeline | Concept | 59.0 |
| AI Risk Critical Uncertainties Model | Crux | 71.0 |
| Frontier AI Company Comparison (2026) | -- | 52.0 |
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When Will the First General AI Be Announced? Feb MAR Apr 31 2025 2026 2027 success fail About this capture COLLECTED BY Collection: GDELT Project TIMESTAMPS The Wayback Machine - http://web.archive.org/web/20260331112505/https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-general-ai-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-announced/ Questions Tournaments Services News Questions Tournaments Questions Questions More Log inSign Up Log inSign Up 651 comments 1.8k forecasters When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? Current estimate Aug 2032 Share Predict Top Key Factors View all (10) :first-child]:pl-4 [&>:last-child]:pr-4 sm:[&>:first-child]:pl-0 sm:[&>:last-child]:pr-0"> ↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals later 10 1 AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting) Earlier 15 3 AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing later 3 0 ↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes Earlier 8 0 China starts a war with Taiwan Earlier 63 22 Strong regulation of AI companies by US government Earlier 44 8 Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (something like SB 1047) later 5 2 Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it) later 8 1 CommentsTimelineKey FactorsQuestion Info Timeline 1d1w2mall Resolution Criteria Key Factors (10) Background Info Followembed Authors: Matthew_Barnett Opened:Aug 23, 2020 Closes:Jan 1, 2080 Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2080 Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020 AI Progress Essay Contest AGI Outcomes Computing and Math Artificial Intelligence Public Benefit Corporation Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance. English System Default ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters CompanyAboutContactCareersFAQ ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use Similar Questions When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? 27 Feb 2028 (17 Aug 2026 - Feb 2032) 27 Feb 2028 (17 Aug 2026 - Feb 2032) 1.7k forecasters Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence? Alphabet 33.3% Anthropic 20.5% OpenAI 21.5% Other 14% 2 others 72 forecasters Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030? 98% chance 132 Show More Questions
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