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Division: RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)

Verdictconfirmed95%
1 check · 4/14/2026

The source text directly confirms all three key fields: (1) name 'RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)' is explicitly stated multiple times throughout the page; (2) type as a 'program-area' is consistent with how RFI is presented as a program/initiative within RAND's Global and Emerging Risks division; (3) status as 'active' is confirmed by the current operational content, active leadership, recent blog posts (Dec 2025, Feb 2025), ongoing forecaster recruitment, and contact information for current engagement. There are no contradictions in the source material.

Our claim

entire record
Slug
rand-forecasting
Name
RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)
Division Type
program-area
Status
active
Notes
Crowdsourced forecasts including superforecasters on AI timelines and geopolitical AI developments.

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
confirmed95%Haiku 4.5 · 4/14/2026

NoteThe source text directly confirms all three key fields: (1) name 'RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)' is explicitly stated multiple times throughout the page; (2) type as a 'program-area' is consistent with how RFI is presented as a program/initiative within RAND's Global and Emerging Risks division; (3) status as 'active' is confirmed by the current operational content, active leadership, recent blog posts (Dec 2025, Feb 2025), ongoing forecaster recruitment, and contact information for current engagement. There are no contradictions in the source material.

Case № iBFEUcKCAOFiled 4/14/2026Confidence 95%
Source Check: Division: RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) | Longterm Wiki