Skip to content
Longterm Wiki has not been actively maintained since May 2026. Some data is still updated occasionally, but please don't rely on this site being current or accurate.
Longterm Wiki
Index
Division·iBFEUcKCAO·Record

RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)

Verdictconfirmed95%
1 check · 4/29/2026

1 → confirmed

Our claim

entire record
Slug
rand-forecasting
Name
RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)
Division Type
program-area
Status
active
Notes
Crowdsourced forecasts including superforecasters on AI timelines and geopolitical AI developments.

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
confirmed95%Haiku 4.5 · 4/24/2026

NoteAll three key fields are confirmed by the source: (1) Name 'RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)' is explicitly stated in the page title and throughout; (2) Type 'program-area' is appropriate as RFI is described as a program/initiative within RAND's organizational structure under 'RAND Global and Emerging Risks'; (3) Status 'active' is confirmed by the present-tense description of ongoing operations, current leadership, active recruitment of forecasters, and recent dated content (Dec 2025, Feb 2025, etc.). The source is a current webpage (archived March 11, 2026) describing RFI's active operations.

Case № iBFEUcKCAOFiled 4/29/2026Confidence 95%
Source Check: RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) | Longterm Wiki