Grant: Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts (Manifund → David Rhys Bernard)
The record claims an amount of $4,548.33, but the source text indicates the project raised $2,999 and David Rhys Bernard's own comment states he 'received' $3,000 total. The claimed amount of $4,548.33 is not mentioned anywhere in the source. The date of 2023-02-26 cannot be verified from the source text (which shows a 2025 archive date and references to 'almost 3 years ago' comments). The grantee (David Rhys Bernard) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed. The amount is contradicted or at minimum unverifiable as stated.
Our claim
entire record- Name
- Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
- Amount
- $4,548
- Currency
- USD
- Date
- February 26, 2023
- Notes
- [ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials
Source evidence
1 src · 1 checkNoteThe record claims an amount of $4,548.33, but the source text indicates the project raised $2,999 and David Rhys Bernard's own comment states he 'received' $3,000 total. The claimed amount of $4,548.33 is not mentioned anywhere in the source. The date of 2023-02-26 cannot be verified from the source text (which shows a 2025 archive date and references to 'almost 3 years ago' comments). The grantee (David Rhys Bernard) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed. The amount is contradicted or at minimum unverifiable as stated.