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Grant: Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts (Manifund → David Rhys Bernard)

Verdictpartial75%
1 check · 4/11/2026

The record claims an amount of $4,548.33, but the source text indicates the project raised $2,999 and David Rhys Bernard's own comment states he 'received' $3,000 total. The claimed amount of $4,548.33 is not mentioned anywhere in the source. The date of 2023-02-26 cannot be verified from the source text (which shows a 2025 archive date and references to 'almost 3 years ago' comments). The grantee (David Rhys Bernard) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed. The amount is contradicted or at minimum unverifiable as stated.

Our claim

entire record
Name
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
Amount
$4,548
Currency
USD
Date
February 26, 2023
Notes
[ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
partial75%Haiku 4.5 · 4/11/2026

NoteThe record claims an amount of $4,548.33, but the source text indicates the project raised $2,999 and David Rhys Bernard's own comment states he 'received' $3,000 total. The claimed amount of $4,548.33 is not mentioned anywhere in the source. The date of 2023-02-26 cannot be verified from the source text (which shows a 2025 archive date and references to 'almost 3 years ago' comments). The grantee (David Rhys Bernard) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed. The amount is contradicted or at minimum unverifiable as stated.

Case № dPUDZom60rFiled 4/11/2026Confidence 75%