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Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

grantNeeds attention

Child of Manifund

Metadata

Source Tablegrants
Source IDdPUDZom60r
Descriptionto David Rhys Bernard, USD 4548.33, 2023-02-26
Source URLmanifund.org/projects/superforecaster-predictions-of-long-term-impacts
ParentManifund
Children—
CreatedMar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM
UpdatedMar 14, 2026, 6:22 AM
SyncedMar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM

Record Data

iddPUDZom60r
organizationIdManifund(organization)
granteeIdDavid Rhys Bernard
orgEntityIdManifund(organization)
orgDisplayName—
granteeEntityId—
granteeDisplayNameDavid Rhys Bernard
nameSuperforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
amount4548.33
currencyUSD
period—
date2023-02-26
status—
sourcemanifund.org/projects/superforecaster-predictions-of-long-term-impacts
notes[ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials
programId8jnn54YEbQ
dataSourceId—

Source Check Verdicts

partial75% confidence

Last checked: 4/29/2026

1 → partial

Debug info

Thing ID: dPUDZom60r

Source Table: grants

Source ID: dPUDZom60r

Parent Thing ID: sid_fFVOuFZCRf