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Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

Child of Manifund

Metadata

Source Tablegrants
Source IDdPUDZom60r
Descriptionto David Rhys Bernard, USD 4548.33, 2023-02-26
Source URLmanifund.org/projects/superforecaster-predictions-of-long-term-impacts
ParentManifund
Children
CreatedMar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM
UpdatedMar 14, 2026, 6:22 AM
SyncedMar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM

Record Data

iddPUDZom60r
organizationIdManifund(organization)
granteeIdDavid Rhys Bernard
orgEntityIdManifund(organization)
orgDisplayName
granteeEntityId
granteeDisplayNameDavid Rhys Bernard
nameSuperforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
amount4548.33
currencyUSD
period
date2023-02-26
status
sourcemanifund.org/projects/superforecaster-predictions-of-long-term-impacts
notes[ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials
programId8jnn54YEbQ
dataSourceId

Source Check Verdicts

partial75% confidence

Last checked: 4/11/2026

The record claims an amount of $4,548.33, but the source text indicates the project raised $2,999 and David Rhys Bernard's own comment states he 'received' $3,000 total. The claimed amount of $4,548.33 is not mentioned anywhere in the source. The date of 2023-02-26 cannot be verified from the source text (which shows a 2025 archive date and references to 'almost 3 years ago' comments). The grantee (David Rhys Bernard) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed. The amount is contradicted or at minimum unverifiable as stated.

Debug info

Thing ID: dPUDZom60r

Source Table: grants

Source ID: dPUDZom60r

Parent Thing ID: sid_fFVOuFZCRf