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Grant: Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks (Manifund → Damien Laird)

Verdictpartial75%
1 check · 4/11/2026

The source confirms the name, grantee (Damien Laird), and funder (Manifund). However, the claimed amount of $1,449.55 does not match the '$1,000 raised' figure shown in the source. The source shows '$1,000 raised' and '$450 valuation', which sum to $1,450 (very close to $1,449.55 but not exact). The specific date of 2023-02-24 is not mentioned in the source text. The Wayback Machine timestamp shows 2026-01-15, which is a capture date, not the grant date. Without explicit confirmation of the exact amount and date in the source, these fields are unverifiable, making the overall record only partially confirmed.

Our claim

entire record
Name
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks
Amount
$1,450
Currency
USD
Date
February 24, 2023
Notes
[ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] Forecasting GCRs is hard. How can we do it better, and how much better is that?

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
partial75%Haiku 4.5 · 4/11/2026

NoteThe source confirms the name, grantee (Damien Laird), and funder (Manifund). However, the claimed amount of $1,449.55 does not match the '$1,000 raised' figure shown in the source. The source shows '$1,000 raised' and '$450 valuation', which sum to $1,450 (very close to $1,449.55 but not exact). The specific date of 2023-02-24 is not mentioned in the source text. The Wayback Machine timestamp shows 2026-01-15, which is a capture date, not the grant date. Without explicit confirmation of the exact amount and date in the source, these fields are unverifiable, making the overall record only partially confirmed.

Case № eD1Wc2nfIZFiled 4/11/2026Confidence 75%
Source Check: Grant: Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks (Manifund -> Damien Laird) | Longterm Wiki