Skip to content
Longterm Wiki
Index
Grant·uC3kAg-w1E·Record·Profile

Grant: Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions (Manifund → Adam Binksmith)

Verdictpartial85%
1 check · 4/9/2026

The record claims a grant of $1,025 from Manifund to Adam Binksmith for 'Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions' dated 2024-08-22. The source confirms the name, grantee, and funder. However, the source shows '$1,025 raised' as part of an ongoing fundraising campaign with a '$415,000 funding goal', which suggests this may be a donation/pledge rather than a completed grant, or the $1,025 may represent only one contribution. The date 2024-08-22 cannot be verified from this source—the Wayback Machine capture is from 2026-01-22, and the source does not explicitly state when the $1,025 was granted. The amount matches exactly, but the context (ongoing fundraising campaign) and unverifiable grant date create uncertainty about whether this represents a single discrete grant or part of a larger fundraising effort.

Our claim

entire record
Name
Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions
Amount
$1,025
Currency
USD
Date
August 22, 2024
Notes
[EA Community Choice, Forecasting] Forecasting tools by Sage. Fatebook: the fastest way to track your predictions. Quantified Intuitions: Forecasting training tools with rapid feedback loops

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/9/2026

NoteThe record claims a grant of $1,025 from Manifund to Adam Binksmith for 'Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions' dated 2024-08-22. The source confirms the name, grantee, and funder. However, the source shows '$1,025 raised' as part of an ongoing fundraising campaign with a '$415,000 funding goal', which suggests this may be a donation/pledge rather than a completed grant, or the $1,025 may represent only one contribution. The date 2024-08-22 cannot be verified from this source—the Wayback Machine capture is from 2026-01-22, and the source does not explicitly state when the $1,025 was granted. The amount matches exactly, but the context (ongoing fundraising campaign) and unverifiable grant date create uncertainty about whether this represents a single discrete grant or part of a larger fundraising effort.

Case № uC3kAg-w1EFiled 4/9/2026Confidence 85%
Source Check: Grant: Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions (Manifund -> Adam Binksmith) | Longterm Wiki