Grant·dPUDZom60r·Record

Grant dPUDZom60r

Verdictpartial75%

1 check · 4/29/2026

1 → partial

Our claim

entire record

Name: Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts
Amount: $4,548
Currency: USD
Date: February 26, 2023
Source: https://manifund.org/projects/superforecaster-predictions-of-long-term-impacts
Notes: [ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check

manifund.org/projects/superforecaster-predictions-of-long-term-impacts Manifund resource

partial75%Haiku 4.5 · 4/11/2026

NoteThe record claims an amount of $4,548.33, but the source text indicates the project raised $2,999 and David Rhys Bernard's own comment states he 'received' $3,000 total. The claimed amount of $4,548.33 is not mentioned anywhere in the source. The date of 2023-02-26 cannot be verified from the source text (which shows a 2025 archive date and references to 'almost 3 years ago' comments). The grantee (David Rhys Bernard) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed. The amount is contradicted or at minimum unverifiable as stated.

Case № dPUDZom60rFiled 4/29/2026Confidence 75%