A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold
Metadata
| Source Table | grants |
| Source ID | Ut0hR2ZIWi |
| Source URL | manifund.org/projects/a-tool-for-making-well-sized-kelly-optimal-bets-on-manifold |
| Children | — |
| Created | Mar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM |
| Updated | Mar 14, 2026, 6:22 AM |
| Synced | Mar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM |
Record Data
id | Ut0hR2ZIWi |
organizationId | Manifund(organization) |
granteeId | Will Howard |
orgEntityId | Manifund(organization) |
orgDisplayName | — |
granteeEntityId | — |
granteeDisplayName | Will Howard |
name | A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold |
amount | 10890.93 |
currency | USD |
period | — |
date | 2023-02-25 |
status | — |
source | manifund.org/projects/a-tool-for-making-well-sized-kelly-optimal-bets-on-manifol… |
notes | [ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet |
programId | 8jnn54YEbQ |
dataSourceId | — |
Source Check Verdicts
Last checked: 4/9/2026
The source text is a Wayback Machine archive of the Manifund project page for Will Howard's Kelly betting tool. It confirms the grantee (Will Howard), funder (Manifund), and project name. However, the source does not explicitly state the grant amount of $10,890.93 or the grant date of 2023-02-25. The page shows '$5,747 raised' and '$7,000 valuation' but these appear to be different metrics (likely crowdfunding amounts) rather than the grant amount. The source text is incomplete and does not contain the specific grant amount or date fields needed to verify those claims. Without explicit confirmation of these key financial and temporal details in the source, the record cannot be verified.
Debug info
Thing ID: Ut0hR2ZIWi
Source Table: grants
Source ID: Ut0hR2ZIWi