Metadata
| Source Table | entities |
| Source ID | manifold |
| Entity Type | organization |
| Description | Manifold is a play-money prediction market with millions of predictions and ~2,000 peak daily users, showing AGI by 2030 at ~60% vs Metaculus ~45%. Platform scored Brier 0.0342 on 2024 election (vs Polymarket's 0.0296), demonstrating play-money markets can approach real-money accuracy but with syste… |
| Source URL | manifold.markets/ |
| Wiki ID | E546 |
| Children | 1 total(1 fact) |
| Created | Mar 29, 2026, 10:41 PM |
| Updated | Oct 12, 2026, 4:25 PM |
| Synced | Oct 12, 2026, 4:25 PM |
Record Data
id | manifold |
wikiId | E546 |
stableId | Manifold (Prediction Market)(organization) |
entityType | organization |
title | Manifold (Prediction Market) |
description | Manifold is a play-money prediction market with millions of predictions and ~2,000 peak daily users, showing AGI by 2030 at ~60% vs Metaculus ~45%. Platform scored Brier 0.0342 on 2024 election (vs Polymarket's 0.0296), demonstrating play-money markets can approach real-money accuracy but with syste… |
website | manifold.markets/ |
tags | — |
clusters | [ "epistemics", "community" ] |
status | — |
lastUpdated | 2026-02 |
customFields | — |
relatedEntries | — |
metadata | {
"orgType": "startup"
} |
Debug info
Thing ID: sid_Y8MiLNuAWA
Source Table: entities
Source ID: manifold
Wiki ID: E546
Entity Type: organization