Longterm Wiki

Manifold (Prediction Market)

Startup

Manifold is a play-money prediction market with millions of predictions and ~2,000 peak daily users, showing AGI by 2030 at ~60% vs Metaculus ~45%. Platform scored Brier 0.0342 on 2024 election (vs Polymarket's 0.0296), demonstrating play-money markets can approach real-money accuracy but with syste

Funding Received
$3M
4 grants

Grants Received

4
4 grants totaling $3M
GrantFunderAmountDate
General Support of Manifold MarketssourceSurvival and Flourishing Fund$1.2 million2023-01
Grant to "support Manifold Markets in building a play-money prediction market platform. The platform is also experimenting with impact certificates and charity prediction markets."sourceFTX Future Fund$1 million2022-03
Grant to "support Manifold Markets in building a charity prediction market, as an experiment for enabling effective forecasters to direct altruistic donations."sourceFTX Future Fund$500,0002022-05
General support of Manifold MarketssourceSurvival and Flourishing Fund$343,0002022-01

Related Organizations

2