ForecastBench

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  "lastUpdated": "2026-01-29",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "ForecastBench is a dynamic, contamination-free benchmark with 1,000 continuously-updated questions comparing LLM forecasting to superforecasters. GPT-4.5 achieves 0.101 Brier score vs 0.081 for superforecasters; linear extrapolation projects LLMs will match human experts by November 2026 (95% CI: Dec 2025 – Jan 2028).",
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No external links