Research institute advancing forecasting methodology through large-scale tournaments and rigorous experiments, led by Philip Tetlock.
Facts
1Related Wiki Pages
Top Related Pages
Philip Tetlock
Psychologist and forecasting researcher who pioneered the science of superforecasting through the Good Judgment Project, demonstrating that systema...
XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)
A four-month structured forecasting tournament (June-October 2022) that brought together 169 participants—89 superforecasters and 80 domain experts...
ForecastBench
A dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating large language model forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025.
Epistemic & Forecasting Organizations (Overview)
Organizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and e...
Metaculus
Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts.