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Philip Tetlock

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Also known as: Philip Tetlock (Forecasting Pioneer)

Pioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%
Born
1954
Age ~72

Organization Roles2

Good Judgment (Forecasting)FounderCurrent
Co-Founder
Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)FounderCurrent
President & Chief Scientist

Education

Yale University; University of British Columbia

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Quick Assessment

DimensionAssessment
Primary AchievementPioneered forecasting tournaments demonstrating that systematic methods outperform expert intuition; identified "superforecasters" with superior accuracy
Key PublicationsExpert Political Judgment (2005), Superforecasting (2015)
Institutional AffiliationLeonore Annenberg University Professor at University of Pennsylvania (Wharton and Psychology)
Major ProjectsGood Judgment Project (IARPA tournament winner 2011-2015), Forecasting Research Institute
Influence on AI SafetyMethods applied to existential risk assessment; adversarial collaboration on AI forecasting; EA community adoption of forecasting practices
Key FindingMost expert predictions perform no better than chance; "fox-like" integrative thinkers outperform "hedgehog" theorists
SourceLink
Official Websiteen.wikiquote.org
Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
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Links

Wikipedia

Facts

4
Biographical
Notable ForPioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%
EducationYale University; University of British Columbia
Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock
Birth Year1954
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