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Metaculus

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Reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts, with over 1 million predictions across 15,000+ questions. Created by Anthony Aguirre (FLI/FLF President).

Related Wiki Pages

Top Related Pages

Approaches

AI-Augmented ForecastingPrediction Markets (AI Forecasting)

Analysis

AI Forecasting Benchmark TournamentAI Risk Activation Timeline ModelCapability-Alignment Race ModelXPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)

Other

Anthony AguirreMax TegmarkEli Lifland

Concepts

AI TimelinesLong-Timelines Technical WorldviewEpistemic Orgs OverviewNovel / Unknown Approaches

Organizations

Epoch AIForecasting Research Institute (FRI)Bridgewater AIA LabsRethink PrioritiesSamotsvety

Key Debates

The Case For AI Existential RiskIs AI Existential Risk Real?