AI Timelines

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      "text": "Cotra (2022)",
      "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines",
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      "text": "Metaculus Aggregate (2026)",
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      "resourceTitle": "AGI Timelines Dashboard"
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      "text": "Davidson (2021)",
      "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/semi-informative-priors-over-ai-timelines/",
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      "resourceTitle": "Semi-Informative Priors Over AI Timelines"
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      "text": "AI Futures Model (Dec 2025)",
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      "resourceTitle": "AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2025 Update"
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      "text": "Kwa/METR (Feb 2026)",
      "url": "https://metr.org/notes/2026-02-10-simpler-ai-timelines-model/",
      "resourceId": "038e3b06af2e1796",
      "resourceTitle": "Research note: A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in ~2032"
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      "text": "AI 2027 (Apr 2025, updated Jan 2026)",
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  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-forecasting"
}