Racing Dynamics Impact Model

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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "This model quantifies how competitive pressure between AI labs reduces safety investment by 30-60% compared to coordinated scenarios and increases alignment failure probability by 2-5x through prisoner's dilemma dynamics. Analysis shows release cycles compressed from 18-24 months (2020) to 3-6 months (2024-2025), with DeepSeek's January 2025 release triggering intensified U.S.-China competition and calls to reduce safety oversight.",
  "description": "This model analyzes how competitive pressure creates race-to-the-bottom dynamics, showing racing reduces safety investment by 30-60% compared to coordinated scenarios and increases alignment failure probability by 2-5x through specific causal mechanisms.",
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