Risk Activation Timeline Model

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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Comprehensive framework mapping AI risk activation windows with specific probability assessments: current risks already active (disinformation 95%+, spear phishing active), near-term critical window 2025-2027 (bioweapons 50% by 2027, cyberweapons 75%), long-term existential risks 2030-2050+ (ASI misalignment 15% by 2030). Recommends \\$3-5B annual investment in Tier 1 interventions with specific allocations: \\$200-400M bioweapons screening, \\$300-600M interpretability, \\$500M-1B cyber-defense.",
  "description": "A systematic framework mapping when different AI risks become critical based on capability thresholds, deployment contexts, and barrier erosion. Maps current active risks, near-term activation windows (2025-2027), and long-term existential risks, with specific probability assessments and intervention windows.",
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