Scheming Likelihood Assessment

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  "title": "Scheming Likelihood Assessment",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Probabilistic framework decomposing AI scheming risk into four multiplicative components (misalignment, situational awareness, instrumental rationality, feasibility), estimating current systems at 1.7% rising to 51.7% for superhuman AI. Recommends \\$200-400M annual investment in interpretability and control methods, with AI control offering 60-90% harm reduction and interpretability 40-80% risk reduction over 3-7 years.",
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