Capability-Alignment Race Model

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  "title": "Capability-Alignment Race Model",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Quantifies the capability-alignment race showing capabilities currently ~3 years ahead of alignment readiness, with gap widening at 0.5 years/year driven by 10²⁶ FLOP scaling vs. 15% interpretability coverage and 30% scalable oversight maturity. Projects gap reaching 5-7 years by 2030 unless alignment research funding increases from \\$200M to \\$800M annually, with 60% chance of warning shot before TAI potentially triggering governance response.",
  "description": "This model analyzes the critical gap between AI capability progress and safety/governance readiness. Currently, capabilities are ~3 years ahead of alignment with the gap increasing at 0.5 years annually, driven by 10²⁶ FLOP scaling vs. 15% interpretability coverage.",
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    "governance"
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        "title": "Intervention Timing Windows",
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    {
      "date": "2026-02-23",
      "branch": "claude/test-research-orchestrator-DUFts",
      "title": "Test Research Orchestrator (engine v2) on 3 alignment pages",
      "summary": "(fill in)"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-23",
      "branch": "claude/test-research-orchestrator-DUFts",
      "title": "Orchestrator v2 (standard): Capability-Alignment Race Model",
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