Compute Monitoring

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  "title": "Compute Monitoring",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Analyzes two compute monitoring approaches: cloud KYC (implementable in 1-2 years, covers ~60% of frontier training via AWS/Azure/Google) and hardware governance (3-5 year timeline). Cloud KYC targets 10^26 FLOP threshold (~\\$10-100M training cost), but on-premise compute and jurisdictional arbitrage enable evasion; hardware-level monitoring could address this but faces substantial technical challenges.",
  "description": "This framework analyzes compute monitoring approaches for AI governance, finding that cloud KYC (targeting 10^26 FLOP threshold) is implementable now via the three major providers controlling 60%+ of cloud infrastructure, while hardware-level governance faces 3-5 year development timelines. The EU AI Act uses a lower 10^25 FLOP threshold. Evasion through on-premise compute and jurisdictional arbitrage remains the primary limitation.",
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        "id": "international-regimes",
        "title": "International Compute Regimes",
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        "title": "Authoritarian Tools Diffusion Model",
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        "title": "Compute Thresholds",
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        "title": "Voluntary Industry Commitments",
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  "lesswrong": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/compute-governance"
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