Capabilities-to-Safety Pipeline Model

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  "title": "Capabilities-to-Safety Pipeline Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Quantitative pipeline model finds only 200-400 ML researchers transition to safety work annually (far below 1,000-2,000 needed), with 60-75% blocked at consideration-to-action stage. MATS training programs achieve 60-80% conversion rates at \\$20-40K per researcher, while fellowships cost \\$50-100K; coordinated \\$50M annual investment could plausibly double transition rates within 2-3 years.",
  "description": "This model analyzes researcher transitions from capabilities to safety work, finding only 10-15% of aware researchers consider switching, with 60-75% blocked by barriers at the consideration-to-action stage. Major intervention potential exists through training programs and fellowships.",
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