AGI Development

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  "title": "AGI Development",
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  "summary": "Comprehensive synthesis of AGI timeline forecasts showing dramatic compression: Metaculus aggregates predict 25% probability by 2027 and 50% by 2031 (down from 50-year median in 2020), with industry leaders targeting 2026-2030. Analysis documents \\$400-450B annual investment by 2026, 3-5 year safety-capability gap, and finds 5% median (16% mean) catastrophic risk estimates from 2,778-researcher survey.",
  "description": "Analysis of AGI development forecasts showing dramatically compressed timelines—Metaculus averages 25% by 2027, 50% by 2031 (down from 50-year median in 2020). Industry leaders predict 2026-2030, with Anthropic officially targeting late 2026/early 2027 for \"Nobel-level\" AI capabilities.",
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      "text": "Metaculus",
      "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-general-ai-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-announced/",
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      "resourceTitle": "Metaculus Question: When Will the First General AI System Be Devised, Tested, and Publicly Announced?"
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      "text": "80,000 Hours",
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      "resourceTitle": "80,000 Hours AGI Timelines Review"
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      "text": "\"powerful AI\" by late 2026/early 2027",
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      "resourceTitle": "Machines of Loving Grace: How AI Could Transform the World for the Better"
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      "resourceTitle": "The cost of compute: A $7 trillion race to scale data centers - McKinsey"
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      "text": "Epoch AI",
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