Parameters Strategy

Key Parameters Implementation Strategy

This document outlines the strategy for creating new parameter pages in the knowledge base. It is designed to be given to multiple Claude Code instances working in parallel.

Overview

Goal: Create parameter pages that frame important variables as continuous measures that can increase or decrease, rather than just as "risks" (negative outcomes).

Benefits of Parameter Framing:

• Symmetric analysis: Track both threats (decreasers) and supports (increasers)
• Causal clarity: Separate the variable from the directions it can move
• Action-oriented: Focus on maintaining/improving parameters
• Measurable: Continuous rather than binary

Completed Work

The following infrastructure is already in place:

• parameter entity type added to schema.ts
• Gauge icon and fuchsia color in EntityTypeIcon.tsx
• Parameter label in InfoBox.tsx
• Sidebar entry in astro.config.mjs
• 4 initial parameters created:
  • Societal Trust
  • Epistemic Capacity
  • Power Distribution
  • Human Agency

Workflow for Creating a Parameter

Step 1: Identify Source Material

Check if a related risk page exists that can be transformed:

src/content/docs/knowledge-base/risks/

Or create from scratch using the template below.

Step 2: Create Entity Definition

Add to src/data/entities.yaml:

- id: parameter-id-here
  type: parameter
  title: "Parameter Title"
  description: "Brief description of what this parameter measures and why it matters"
  customFields:
    - label: Direction
      value: "Higher is better" # or "Lower is better" or "Optimal range exists"
    - label: Current Trend
      value: "Declining/Improving/Stable/Mixed"
    - label: Key Measurement
      value: "How this is measured"
  tags:
    - relevant-tag-1
    - relevant-tag-2

Step 3: Create MDX Page

Create file at src/content/docs/knowledge-base/parameters/{parameter-id}.mdx:

---
title: "Parameter Title"
description: "One sentence describing the parameter. Currently [trend]: [key statistic]."
sidebar:
  order: [next number]
quality: 4
llmSummary: "2-3 sentence summary for AI context. Include key statistics and the main factors that increase/decrease this parameter."
lastEdited: "2025-12-28"
---

{/* Replace with actual entity ID, e.g.:  */}

## Overview

[2-3 paragraphs explaining what this parameter measures and why it matters]

As a **key parameter**, [parameter name] can increase or decrease based on various factors—including AI development and deployment.

This parameter underpins:
- **Domain 1**: Why this matters here
- **Domain 2**: Why this matters here
- **Domain 3**: Why this matters here

---

## Current State Assessment

### Key Metrics

| Metric | Current Value | Historical Baseline | Trend |
|--------|--------------|---------------------|-------|
| Metric 1 | Value | Baseline | Direction |
| Metric 2 | Value | Baseline | Direction |

*Sources: <R id="resource-id">Source name</R>*

---

## What "Healthy [Parameter]" Looks Like

[Describe the optimal state - what would good look like?]

### Key Characteristics of Healthy [Parameter]

1. **Characteristic 1**: Description
2. **Characteristic 2**: Description
3. **Characteristic 3**: Description

---

## Factors That Decrease [Parameter] (Threats)

<Mermaid chart={`
flowchart TD
    AI[AI Systems] --> THREAT1[Threat 1]
    AI --> THREAT2[Threat 2]
    THREAT1 --> OUTCOME[Parameter Decreases]
    THREAT2 --> OUTCOME
    style AI fill:#e1f5fe
    style OUTCOME fill:#ffcdd2
`} />

### Threat Category 1

| Threat | Mechanism | Evidence |
|--------|-----------|----------|
| Specific threat | How it works | Data/citation |

### Threat Category 2

[Similar structure]

---

## Factors That Increase [Parameter] (Supports)

### Technical Approaches

| Approach | Mechanism | Status |
|----------|-----------|--------|
| Approach 1 | How it helps | Current adoption |

### Policy Interventions

| Intervention | Mechanism | Status |
|--------------|-----------|--------|
| Policy 1 | How it helps | Implementation status |

### Institutional Approaches

[Similar structure]

---

## Why This Parameter Matters

### Consequences of Low [Parameter]

| Domain | Impact | Severity |
|--------|--------|----------|
| Domain 1 | What happens | Critical/High/Medium |

### [Parameter] and Existential Risk

[How does this parameter connect to x-risk?]

---

## Trajectory and Scenarios

### Projected Trajectory

| Timeframe | Key Developments | Parameter Impact |
|-----------|-----------------|------------------|
| 2025-2026 | Development | Impact |
| 2027-2030 | Development | Impact |

### Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Probability | Outcome |
|----------|-------------|---------|
| Optimistic | 20-30% | Description |
| Baseline | 40-50% | Description |
| Pessimistic | 20-30% | Description |

---

## Key Debates

### Debate 1

**View A:**
- Point 1
- Point 2

**View B:**
- Point 1
- Point 2

## Sources & Key Research

### Category 1
- <R id="resource-id">Source name</R>

Step 4: Validate

npm run build:data
npm run validate
npm run dev  # Check the page renders

Implementation Batches

Each batch should be worked on by a separate Claude Code instance. Complete one batch before starting dependencies.

Batch 1: Technical Safety Parameters

Priority: High (foundational for understanding AI risk)

Dependencies: None

Todo List:

• Create alignment-robustness entity in entities.yaml
• Create alignment-robustness.mdx page
• Create safety-capability-gap entity in entities.yaml
• Create safety-capability-gap.mdx page
• Create interpretability-coverage entity in entities.yaml
• Create interpretability-coverage.mdx page
• Run npm run build:data && npm run validate
• Test pages render correctly

Batch 2: Governance Parameters

Priority: High (policy-relevant)

Dependencies: None

Todo List:

• Create international-coordination entity in entities.yaml
• Create international-coordination.mdx page (draw from international-summits, international.mdx)
• Create regulatory-capacity entity in entities.yaml
• Create regulatory-capacity.mdx page
• Create institutional-quality entity in entities.yaml
• Create institutional-quality.mdx page (transform institutional-capture)
• Run npm run build:data && npm run validate

Batch 3: Economic & Human Capital Parameters

Priority: High (affects broad population)

Dependencies: None

Todo List:

• Create economic-stability entity in entities.yaml
• Create economic-stability.mdx page (transform economic-disruption)
• Create human-expertise-level entity in entities.yaml
• Create human-expertise-level.mdx page
• Create human-oversight-quality entity in entities.yaml
• Create human-oversight-quality.mdx page
• Run npm run build:data && npm run validate

Batch 4: Information Environment Parameters

Priority: Medium-High (relates to epistemic-capacity already created)

Dependencies: Batch 1 complete (for cross-linking)

Todo List:

• Create information-authenticity entity in entities.yaml
• Create information-authenticity.mdx page
• Create reality-coherence entity in entities.yaml
• Create reality-coherence.mdx page (transform reality-fragmentation)
• Create preference-authenticity entity in entities.yaml
• Create preference-authenticity.mdx page (transform preference-manipulation)
• Run npm run build:data && npm run validate

Batch 5: Development Dynamics Parameters

Priority: Medium (strategic for AI governance)

Dependencies: None

Todo List:

• Create racing-intensity entity in entities.yaml
• Create racing-intensity.mdx page (transform racing-dynamics, invert framing)
• Create safety-culture-strength entity in entities.yaml
• Create safety-culture-strength.mdx page
• Create coordination-level entity in entities.yaml
• Create coordination-level.mdx page
• Run npm run build:data && npm run validate

Batch 6: Security & Resilience Parameters

Priority: Medium (important but more specialized)

Dependencies: None

Todo List:

• Create biosecurity-level entity in entities.yaml
• Create biosecurity-level.mdx page
• Create cyber-defense-capacity entity in entities.yaml
• Create cyber-defense-capacity.mdx page
• Create system-resilience entity in entities.yaml
• Create system-resilience.mdx page
• Run npm run build:data && npm run validate

Batch 7: Structural & Long-term Parameters

Priority: Medium (important for long-term scenarios)

Dependencies: Batches 1-3 complete (for cross-linking)

Todo List:

• Create reversibility-options entity in entities.yaml
• Create reversibility-options.mdx page
• Create value-lock-in-risk entity in entities.yaml
• Create value-lock-in-risk.mdx page (can share content with reversibility)
• Create privacy-level entity in entities.yaml
• Create privacy-level.mdx page
• Create democratic-participation entity in entities.yaml
• Create democratic-participation.mdx page
• Run npm run build:data && npm run validate

CLI Commands for Each Instance

Starting a Batch

# Navigate to project
cd /path/to/longtermwiki

# Ensure clean state
git pull
npm install
npm run build:data

# Start Claude Code
claude

# Give it this instruction:
"Work on Batch [N] from PARAMETERS_STRATEGY.md. Create the entity definitions and MDX pages for the parameters listed. Follow the template exactly. Run validation after each parameter."

Validation Commands

# After each parameter
npm run build:data
npm run validate

# Check specific validators
npm run crux -- validate templates
npm run crux -- validate refs
npm run crux -- validate compile

# Test dev server
npm run dev

Commit Strategy

After completing a batch:

git add src/data/entities.yaml
git add src/content/docs/knowledge-base/parameters/
git commit -m "Add [Batch N] parameters: [parameter1], [parameter2], [parameter3]"

Quality Checklist for Each Parameter Page

Before marking a parameter complete, verify:

• Entity definition added to entities.yaml with correct type, tags, customFields
• MDX page has all required sections (Overview, Current State, Healthy State, Threats, Supports, Why It Matters, Trajectory, Related Pages)
• DataInfoBox component with correct entityId
• Backlinks component at bottom
• At least one Mermaid diagram
• At least 2 data tables
• Quality rating of 4 or higher
• llmSummary in frontmatter
• lastEdited date is current
• All $ signs escaped as \$ in content
• npm run validate passes
• Page renders correctly in dev server

Transformation Rules for Risk → Parameter

When converting a risk page to a parameter:

Frontmatter Changes

# Risk version
title: "Trust Erosion"
description: "How AI systems may undermine..."

# Parameter version
title: "Societal Trust"
description: "Level of public confidence... Currently declining: [stat]."

Section Restructure

Language Changes

Coordination Notes

• Batch Order: Batches 1-3 and 5-6 can run in parallel. Batch 4 and 7 have dependencies.
• Conflicts: Only entities.yaml might have merge conflicts. Communicate before committing.
• Review: Each batch should be reviewed before the dependent batches start.
• Quality: Aim for quality 4 minimum. Can be improved to 5 later with more research.