Longterm Wiki has not been actively maintained since May 2026. Some data is still updated occasionally, but please don't rely on this site being current or accurate.
QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)OrganizationQURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)QURI develops Squiggle (probabilistic programming language with native distribution types), SquiggleAI (Claude Sonnet 3.5-powered model generation), Metaforecast (forecast aggregation across 18 pla...Quality: 48/100
AI Futures ProjectOrganizationAI Futures ProjectAI Futures Project is a nonprofit co-founded in 2024 by Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland that produces detailed AI capability forecasts, most notably the AI 2027 scenario depicting rapid progress to s...Quality: 50/100
SamotsvetyOrganizationSamotsvetyElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by...Quality: 61/100