Nonprofit research organization developing tools for probabilistic reasoning, forecasting, and epistemic infrastructure. Key projects include Squiggle (probabilistic programming language), Squiggle Hub (model sharing platform), Metaforecast (forecast aggregation), SquiggleAI (LLM-powered estimation), RoastMyPost (LLM-powered content evaluation), and Guesstimate (spreadsheet for distributions). Founded in 2019 by Ozzie Gooen, evolved from earlier Guesstimate work (2016). Based in Berkeley, CA; primarily remote team of ~3-5 core contributors. Fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities. Funded by Survival and Flourishing Fund ($650K through 2022), Future Fund ($200K, 2022), and Long-Term Future Fund (ongoing). EIN 84-3847921.
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Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF)
SFF is a donor-advised fund financed primarily by Jaan Tallinn (Skype co-founder, ~\$900M net worth) that uses a unique S-process simulation mechan...
Squiggle
A domain-specific programming language for probabilistic estimation that enables complex uncertainty modeling through native distribution types, Mo...
SquiggleAI
An LLM-powered tool for generating probabilistic models in Squiggle from natural language descriptions.
Rethink Priorities
Research organization conducting evidence-based analysis across animal welfare, global health, AI governance, and existential risk reduction
Metaforecast
A forecast aggregation platform that combines predictions from 10+ sources (Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket, Good Judgment Open) into a unified sea...