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Co-founded Samotsvety forecasting group (won CSET-Foretell by ~2x margin); founded Sentinel for global catastrophe early warning; built Metaforecast.org; ranked 2nd all-time on INFER platform
Co-founder of Samotsvety Forecasting; founder of Sentinel; runs Shapley Maximizers OÜ consultancy
Notable Achievements
Samotsvety won CSETOrganizationCSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology)CSET is a $100M+ Georgetown center with 50+ staff conducting data-driven AI policy research, particularly on U.S.-China competition and export controls. The center conducts hundreds of annual gover...Quality: 43/100-Foretell competition by approximately 2x margin over second place; ranked 2nd all-time on INFER platform
Core Expertise
Forecasting methodology, AI timelines, quantified uncertainty, risk assessment
Notable Positions
Skeptical of high AI existential risk estimates; critical of some EA institutions
Current Focus
Building SentinelOrganizationSentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)Sentinel is a catastrophic risk foresight organization co-founded by Nuño Sempere and Rai Sur, operating informally from around 2023 and incorporated as a US 501(c)(3) nonprofit in or after late 20...Quality: 39/100 as early-warning system for global catastrophes; independent consulting