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Metaforecast – Prediction Market Aggregator
webmetaforecast.org·metaforecast.org/
Metaforecast aggregates prediction market forecasts from platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Manifold Markets, enabling users to search and compare crowd-sourced probability estimates on topics including AI development, geopolitics, and policy — useful for calibrating AI safety-relevant forecasts.
Metadata
Importance: 42/100tool pagetool
Summary
Metaforecast is a search engine and aggregator for prediction markets, pulling forecasts from multiple platforms (Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold Markets, etc.) into a single interface. It allows users to find crowd-sourced probability estimates on a wide range of questions including AI, geopolitics, and policy. The site is currently not actively maintained but remains accessible.
Key Points
- •Aggregates forecasts from multiple prediction market platforms including Polymarket, PredictIt, and Manifold Markets.
- •Provides a unified search interface for finding probability estimates on diverse questions including AI-related topics.
- •Displays metadata such as liquidity, number of forecasters, and star ratings for question quality.
- •Covers AI safety-relevant questions such as AI winters, leadership changes at AI labs, and geopolitical risks.
- •Currently not actively maintained but historically served as a key forecasting aggregation tool for the EA/rationalist community.
Cited by 3 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | Organization | 48.0 |
| Sentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight) | Organization | 39.0 |
| Metaforecast | Project | 35.0 |
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Metaforecast We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
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Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 9? 2% Exceptionally unlikely Last updated: 2026-04-09 This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from...
Last updated: 2026-04-09 ★★☆☆☆ Polymarket Liquidity : $995 Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 8? < 1% Exceptionally unlikely Last updated: 2026-04-09 This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from...
Last updated: 2026-04-09 ★★★☆☆ Polymarket Liquidity : $11k Will the Senate pass supplemental Iran funding by April 30? 24% Unlikely Last updated: 2026-04-09 This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate passes a bill or resolution subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2026 and by the End Date listed below that, if enacted, would have the effect of providing at least...
Last updated: 2026-04-09 ★★★☆☆ PredictIt Shares vol. : 622 Will Georgia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? < 1% Exceptionally unlikely Last updated: 2026-04-09 The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.
This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the professional juries in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026..
Last updated: 2026-04-09 ★★☆☆☆ Polymarket Liquidity : $20k Will Russia invade another country in 2026? 13% Unlikely Last updated: 2026-04-09 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve...
Last updated: 2026-04-09 ★★★★☆ Polymarket Liquidity : $28k Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City? 12% Unlikely Last updated: 2025-05-23 Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mjmandl/will-waymo-be-the-first-to-provide)
Last updated: 2025-05-23 ★★☆☆☆ Manifold Markets Forecasters : 40 Volume : M3.8k Will Aaron Rai finish as leader after Round 3? 16% Unlikely Last updated: 2026-04-09 This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 3 of the main tournament at the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National with the lowest cumulative score to par.
In the event of a tie, this market
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