Philip Tetlock | Psychology

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# Philip Tetlock

Leonore Annenberg University Professor

[tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu](mailto:tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu)

[215-746-8541](tel:215-746-8541)

Solomon Labs

3720 Walnut St, Room C8

[Website](http://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/)

[CV File](https://psychology.sas.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/Tetlock%20CV%20%20August%20%2020_0.pdf)

![](https://psychology.sas.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/styles/1x1_sm_scale_crop/public/Copy%20of%20TetlockP-0056_0.jpg?h=d72ff27f&itok=nTotEgCj)

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Research Interests

Decision Processes; Social and Cultural Psychology

#### Research Synopsis

- Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations?
- Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Thoughtful self-critical analysis?
- De-biasing judgment and choice. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making?

Education

BA, University of British Columbia;

PhD, Psychology, Yale University

Selected Publications

**Books and Edited Volumes:**

Tetlock, P. E. (2005, first edition; 2017, second edition). _Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?_ Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. (2015). _Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction_. New York, NY: Crown.

**Journal Articles and Book Chapters:**

Tetlock, P. E. & Gill, D. J. (2025). Prediction and retrodiction. _American Historical Review_.

Tetlock, P. E. (2025). Tracking forecasting accuracy of geopolitical schools of thought and causes of their predictive successes and failures. _Critical Review_.

Schoenegger, P., Tuminauskaite, I., Park, P. S., Valdece, S., Bastos, R. & Tetlock, P. E. (2025) Wisdom of the silicon crowd: LLM ensemble prediction capabilities rival human crowd accuracy. _Science Advances._ ISSN 2375-2548.

Schoenegger, Coombs, S., Karger, E. & Tetlock, P.E. (2025). AI-Augmented predictions: LLM assistants improve human forecasting accuracy. _Association for Computing Machinery (ACM): Transactions on interactive intelligent systems._

Karger, E. Bastani, H. Yueh-Han, Jacobs, Z. Halawi, D. Zhang, F. & Tetlock, P. E. (2025). ForecastBench: A dynamic benchmark of AI forecasting capabilities. _arXiv:2409.19839v1 \[cs.LG\]_ 30 Sep 2024.

Karger, E., Jacobs, Z., Rosenberg, J. & Tetlock, P. E. (2025). Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial Results from a hybrid persuasion-forecas

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