XPT Results

The XPT represents an innovative approach to understanding complex existential risks by bringing together accurate forecasters and domain experts in a structured, collaborative prediction environment. By incentivizing participants to discuss, explain, and update their forecasts, the tournament aimed to generate high-quality insights into potential catastrophic scenarios facing humanity in the next century. The methodology's key strength lies in its interactive format, which allows participants to engage directly with different perspectives and potentially refine their predictions through structured dialogue. Of particular interest are the observed differences between superforecasters and expert perspectives, especially regarding the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes. The researchers noted intriguing discrepancies, such as why superforecasters seemed less concerned about extreme risks despite agreeing on many fundamental points. This approach provides a novel framework for exploring how expertise, forecasting skill, and interdisciplinary knowledge interact when assessing long-term global risks.