Tetlock research

Tetlock's groundbreaking research on Superforecasting emerged from a US intelligence community-funded project that challenged conventional wisdom about predictive accuracy. The Good Judgment Project, led by Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, demonstrated that a select group of forecasters could consistently outperform professional intelligence analysts, even those with access to classified information, by approximately 30%. The research has profound implications for decision-making across multiple domains, including government, finance, energy, and nonprofit sectors. By identifying and training individuals with specific cognitive traits and methodological approaches, Superforecasting offers a systematic approach to reducing uncertainty and improving strategic planning. The work highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, continuous learning, and carefully calibrated predictions over dogmatic or overconfident forecasting methods.