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Nuno Sempere's Blog

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This is the blog index of Nuno Sempere, an EA-aligned forecaster and researcher who occasionally writes on topics relevant to AI safety, rationality, and effective altruism. The content shown covers nonprofit strategy, philosophy, and social commentary rather than direct AI safety research.

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Summary

This is the blog homepage of Nuno Sempere, featuring essays on topics including nonprofit strategy, philosophy (Bhagavad Gita), and social commentary on wealth and culture. The content is broadly EA/rationalist in orientation and occasionally touches on forecasting and AI-adjacent topics.

Key Points

  • •Covers nonprofit growth strategy: argues small scrappy nonprofits face diminishing returns and should scale despite reduced cost-effectiveness per dollar.
  • •Includes philosophical commentary on the Bhagavad Gita and its lessons on duty, detachment, and the good life.
  • •Discusses pathologies of wealthy Americans whose base needs are met but higher-order needs lead to mimetic desire and misalignment.
  • •Author is known in EA/forecasting communities for quantitative reasoning and work on prediction markets.
  • •Blog is a personal intellectual outlet rather than a focused AI safety resource.

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 Grow vs stay small for startup nonprofits (2026/03/04)

 Small startup nonprofits, such as those from Charity Entrepreneurship, face the tradeoff between staying smaller, and thus by default more cost-effective per unit of money, and grow, and accept diminishing returns but larger impact. The second seems worth doing because it unlocks more impact as a whole.

 The first order analysis: Producing impact at scale is worth the reduction in cost-effectiveness. 

 In the financial markets, getting a larger return for more capital is harder. Berkshire Hathaway is holding $382 billion in cash, because they can’t find good enough returns, say 20%/year, at that size . But as a private individual, one can get those returns via private investments, education, exploring career opportunities, changing jobs, or following niche market trends. But as one’s capital size gets high enough, one can’t deploy that capital without moving markets too much, and one starts to need ritualized financial instruments, like stocks rather than handshake agreements.

 Similarly, even though a scrappy nonprofit with a few talented people is more cost-effective, the number of those opportunities is limited. For instance, there might be only so many areas of operation, or only so many talented people willing to do so. Or, even if Charity Entrepreneurship is able to find a growing number of people to lead those small organizations, the rate at which CE itself can grow is limited.

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 For less capable people He wrote the Mahābhārata (2026/03/03)

 Our hero, Arjuna, finds himself in a position of either fighting his cousins, who have gone to war against him, or losing his kingdom and abandoning his duty as a warrior. As he surveys the battlefield, he turns to Krishna, who is taking the form of his charioteer, and inquires about how to make this decision and the nature of the good life.

 The answer is a recipe: realize that pursuing happiness and pleasure is a trap. The fulfillment of a craving simply results in another craving. You might be tempted to solve this by getting really rich and then fulfilling all your cravings, but then you will find that old age, disease and death are not solvable through wealth [^yet].

 The solution presented to the trap is to cultivate tranquility and serenity, through ample heaps of loving-kindness meditation (on the figure of Krishna). To be unattached from the fruit of one’s actions but nonetheless do one’s duty. And to orient one’s life around a combination of attaining wisdom , loving devotion , and doing good actions .

 Therefore, Arjuna should kill his cousins and regain his kingdom, following his duty. In so doing he should regard Krishna in awe and hold him in constant adoration.

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 When rich Americans fail (2026/02/16)

 American’s base needs are met . American culture, for the r

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