Guesstimate: A Spreadsheet for Uncertain Estimates

Summary

Guesstimate is a web-based spreadsheet application that allows users to model uncertain quantities using probability distributions rather than fixed values. It enables Monte Carlo simulations through a familiar spreadsheet interface, making quantitative uncertainty analysis accessible. This is particularly useful for AI safety researchers estimating risks, timelines, or impacts where precise values are unknown.

Key Points

• •Allows users to input ranges and probability distributions instead of single point estimates in spreadsheet cells
• •Runs Monte Carlo simulations automatically to propagate uncertainty through calculations
• •Useful for AI safety forecasting tasks such as estimating timelines, risk probabilities, or cost-benefit analyses
• •Free, browser-based tool with shareable models, lowering barriers to rigorous uncertainty quantification
• •Supports collaborative and transparent reasoning about uncertain quantities relevant to existential risk research