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Cited by 5 pages

PageTypeQuality
Large Language ModelsConcept62.0
AI Compute Scaling MetricsAnalysis78.0
AI Capability Threshold ModelAnalysis72.0
Epoch AIOrganization51.0
Compute ThresholdsPolicy91.0

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 Machine Learning Trends

 A dashboard curating key trends and statistics on artificial intelligence, showcasing the growth of this technology and offering a glimpse into its future.

 Last updated on Dec 9, 2025

 
 
 
 
 

 Share 
 

 
 
 Cite 
 
 
 
 Display growth values in:

 
 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 The Epoch Capabilities index 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 Confident 
 
 
 

 
 
 +15.5 ECI per year 
 

 
 
 Model capabilities have grown faster since the start of 2024. 90% confidence interval: +13 to +18 ECI per year. 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 Compute stock growth 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 Likely 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 199.5 
 x /year 
 
 

 
 
 The total computing power of the stock of NVIDIA chips is growing by . 90% confidence interval: to . 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 FLOP/s per dollar 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 Confident 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 23.4 
 x /year 
 
 

 
 
 Performance per dollar improves by each year . 90% confidence interval: to . 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 Training compute 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 Confident 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 100000.0 
 x /year 
 
 

 
 
 Training compute for frontier language models has been growing by since 2020. 90% confidence interval: to . 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 Algorithmic progress 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 Likely 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 1000.0 
 % /year 
 
 

 
 
 The compute required to achieve a given level of prediction accuracy in language model pre-training is declining at a rate of . 90% confidence interval: to . 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 

 
 
 
 
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